Facts Live Here
In Australia and New Zealand commentators and the media tiptoe around making sure they don't offend anyone when writing about how sires are performing. It's like saying something bad about The Queen, not done in proper society. Do yourself a favour and go to http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/StallionWatch.htm, the website for an American agency. Love their stuff because they do their research and their opinions are backed up by hard numbers. Can you imagine anyone having the testicles to write that stuff here? Never get invited to a marquee again. Except perhaps.....
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Hi Steve,
What is your opinion of Elusive Quality who is listed by Stallion Watch as one of the worst value sires standing in the US for $50-75,000? Here in Australia he is $137,500, so what does that say?
To me, it says not many people will be paying it. I cannot fathom what makes him worth that. Setting fees off sales returns is some kind of joke when they've hardly run. His Australian progeny have barely had a chance - they're only three, and half of them at least have been in EI limbo. The next nine months will make or break him. Always in my mind has been the thought that he served five seasons overseas before he set foot on Australian soil. His mares have been super, as you'd expect for a horse with that fee level, which only increases the expectation level.
I agree. According to Stallions.com.au, since his progeny began selling at Australian sales they have averaged $271,000. Breeders are not stupid and they will not pay $137,500 for an unproven sire that has also been disappointing in the NH. Having said that, I believe his stock will get better with age and therefore he still has time to prove himself here. But at present he is very over-priced. The fact that he is only $82,500 less then Encosta de Lago, for example, is laughable and makes you question Darley's logic and motive.
I think the way stud fees fluctuate from season to season, sometimes dramatically, is unfair to breeders given the long lead time before they can realise the investment (by which time the stallion could be custard). Off the back of Smarty Jones and some superficially impressive black-type stats in his early crops, Elusive Quality was/is Darley's flag bearer hence his fee level, boosted now, of course, by those sale returns which are inexplicably high. The one good EQ so far is out of a mare better than he was so how much credit he should get for that I'm unsure. But I repeat what I said before, his Oz progeny have barely had time to scratch the surface. They just sell like champions! Encosta de Lago is probably the No. 2 stallion in Australasia after Zabeel in terms of all-round performance but if they permit foal-sharing arrangements with him it suggests to me that his fee is artificially high too.
You mention Zabeel. My absolute favourite sire. For a stallion of his stature his service fee ($100,000) has to make him the best valued sire I have ever seen! Sir Patrick Hogan knows how to look after his clients - breeders and buyers alike - and has demonstrated tremendous business acumen, and fairness, in setting his fee year in year out which makes him accessible not just for the big players. Other stud masters should take a leaf out of his book. How many great horses has Zabeel produced - Might and Power, Octagonal, Mouawad, Fiumicino, Efficient, Reset, Champagne, Don Eduardo, Jezabeel, Maldivian, Sky Heights.....etc etc, therefore making some current stallions' fees (not just EQ)ridiculous.
Zabeel goes down in history as one of the all-time greats. I just don't know where the staying super-sire is going to come from. The Melbourne Cup will be 1600m in 100 years time or less, for sure.
What I find incredible is that anyone with little more than a basic knowledge of the breeding industry would find the results the least bit illuminating. All the statistics on stallions, particularly in America, are so easily accessed. The conclusions are based on the stallions service fee. Does anyone pay the advertised fee?.
Just about every stallions service fee in Australia is 50% overpriced. Can anyone put their hand on their heart and give one example of a bargain priced stallion?
If anyone that uses a bloodstock agent to purchase yearlings who places more importance of the stallion than the broodmare - get another agent pronto!
Steve
with teh upcoming sales - what stallions are you looking at more closely or staying away from?
If they are so easily accessed, can you tell me where I can find the Comparative Index for stallions in Australia?
In reply to Lucky, I never approach the sales in a stallio-specific way unless I have a client who is interested in only certain stallions' progeny. I have one such client who is consistently one of Australia's most successful owners; he is unswayed by fashion and looks at the stallions who are really doing the job. And seldom ever pays more than $250k, mostly much less. My job is to help him sort out the athletes amongst them. Each year, a number of yearlings which I have been instrumental in selecting do not get knocked down in my name, but that doesn't worry me, I am paid to do my job. In 2007, two such yearlings sold for $1.7 million to one individual client of mine. But getting back to the sales, if I have a general order to fill I will look at every horse, physique first, catalogue next. I am open minded because unless a stallion has a proven record of under-performance you will miss good horses if you take a prejudice to a sale. For example, when the kiss of death was well and truly on him, there was an Orpen I loved in Attunga's draft at Magic Millions three or four years ago. I couldn't get anyone interested, they were physically ill when I mentioned the stallion's name; he made $55k, became a G1 winner and is now in Dubai. At the upcoming NZ sale I will probably make only one free-choice purchase; it will be a horse with stamina pretensions.
Further to the most recent Anonymous (it is preferable to use a nickname for clarity's sake) - yes, hundreds, probably thousands, of mares are served at the advertised fee or at best with miniscule discounts. Don't know where you get your ideas from. And if you don't think O'Reilly has been the bargain of the millenium so far you're on a different planet. There's scarcely a horse in Australia doing what he's doing and he's never been more than NZ$20k (but not any longer!!). Given O'Reilly's in NZ and has so many sold off to Asia, his figures are about as good as Flying Spur's yet he stood for 20% of Spur's fee in 2007.
Steve
Could you give your thoughtson what you look for at the sales that for example a horse must have - or perhaps something you are forgiving on
Ultimately, it’ll be a horse which gives me an overall impression that it’s built to run, its general demeanour, posture and way of moving. Different people look at horses differently which is what makes the game interesting. And you can’t always get the horse you want – often someone else has a lot more money to spend. I look for a horse which has good development and strength for its age. A good yearling should be about 80% of its adult weight and size. It must have symmetry, or balanced proportions and preferably futher scope, a long underline in relation to its back, good head carriage and have a fluidity of movement, in particular elastic front leg extension. Sprinters often have a less fluid hind leg action. I like a horse with a deep girth, width under the jaw and I pay close attention to its nostrils, eyes and ears. I prefer a high tail set and low-set hocks. I’m not keen on a narrow chest/undercarriage or horses with excessively short backs, short reins or short legs. Leg conformation is a variable because the legs are only wheels, not engines, and unless the shoulder or pasterns are very straight they seldom determine how fast the horse will run. So I can be a bit forgiving in this area because if you stand next to the winner’s stall for 40 years you will see them come back in all shapes and sizes, and some conformation traits are breed specific. Most horses fail because of lack of ability than for any other reason. For me, the least desirable leg conformations are club feet, constricted ‘American’ feet, straight, curbed and sickle hocks and calf knees.
hi Steve
your thoughts on Pillar of Hercules as a potential stallion?
regards
steve m
Underneath my signature on my email used to be the following epithet: "The chances of picking a stallion are like Russian roulette: you can be right, you can be wrong but you can never be certain". Because that's a truism (of my own invention) you can understand why I get brassed off with all the claims that are bandied about for new stallions. It's a proving business, pure and simple. At a luncheon recently, a very prominent Sydney trainer regaled the table as to why Danehill had been a certainty to succeed. He said it was a no-brainer: he was a son of Danzig, he was from a great family, he won the July Cup (actually it was the Ladbrokes Sprint G1). I thought to myself, this bloke has never heard of Elnadim! Anyway, back to Pillar Of Hercules - in order to get the quality mares he'll need he has to do quite a bit more on the track, which is what the syndicate is hoping for no doubt, and I wish them luck. What I've seen so far, he is fairly one-paced, I'd like to see more turn of foot, and his ratings are not high suggesting that his form is open to challenge - and/or improvement! To me, he's more the style of horse of his broodmare sire, Brocco, than a ROG. I haven't seen him since he was a yearling but that was the strong impression I got then. This family can throw a bit of size, too. Years ago I bought one of his relatives, Beans, and she was a big girl. Overall, I've been disappointed in ROG's colts. To date, Murtajill is the only one to have excited me in the least. Going back to Brocco, he is probably doing better as a broodmare sire (currently about 9% SW-to-winners) than he did as a sire of runners where he didn't attain 5% SW-to-winners. That's relatively encouraging inasmuch as it's suggesting Brocco's daughters are reasonable conduits for running ability, bearing in mind he's only 17 and I don't think you can gauge a broodmare sire until he's about 20 (which makes O'Reilly look specially promising in that regard). And it seems the broodmare sire of the stallion is a crucial link in the chain. Pillar Of Hercules is a relatively outbred horse with only one common ancestor in six generations (his sire and dam are differently inbred) and it may that he can be jazzed up a bit with linebreeding to some of the quicker elements in his background. He shouldn't be a difficult horse to mate. I certainly won't be making any pronouncement on his likelihood of success in the breeding barn but if through accident he had to go to stud this year without embellishing his record I reckon you'd have a hard time convincing owners of good mares to patronise him. Support is very often a function of what price the horse is at and the clout of the stud which takes him on, but I love a horse who is his own best advertisement.
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