This Will Help You Pick A Winner - Oh Sure!

Having glanced over the Australian black-type races from the beginning of the Melbourne autumn carnival (1 February) to the end of the Queensland winter carnival (about 270 winners), I have a few observations based on this sample.

(The first half of the 2007-08 season will always be an aberration because EI suspended racing in NSW and Queensland. But things were back to normal by February, so that’s the start of my sample).

=If you think you own a potential stakeswinner, it’s most likely to be one of the first four foals of its dam.

=If the mare produced the foal after an ‘empty’ year, then it’s not likely to give you an edge.

=If the mare’s had a few foals and none of the earlier ones has been a stakeswinner or stakes-placed, don’t worry too much – only one-third of the dams of stakeswinners have had any previous black-type record.

=Your horse has nearly twice as good a chance of being a stakeswinner if its dam won a race.

=If you bought your horse at auction, it has a better chance of being a stakeswinner than if you didn’t.

=If you did buy it at auction, the more you paid the better your horse is likely to be.

Looking at these sweeping generalisations in order:

If you think you own a potential stakeswinner, it’s most likely to be one of the first four foals of its dam.

The average foal number of Group 1 winners was 3.31, dropping down to Listed winners at 4.08. Narrowing it even further, just over half of all black-type winners was a first-three-foal, with a marked 65.5% in Group 1. This fits with a study I did a couple of years ago which suggested to me that the higher the foal number out of the mare, the lower the status of race the progeny are likely to win, on average. (I'm aware Fields Of Omagh was a 12th foal, Secretariat etc, the exceptions which prove the rule). I guess that’s why we cull mares when they get older!

In the period I’ve looked at, the most ‘senior’ Group 1 winning foal was Shadoways (Encosta de Lago-Be My Pride) who is the 9th foal of his dam and won the G1 SAJC Goodwood Handicap, hardly the most exalted race on the calendar. It was his only black-type success in 10 starts this term and his only previous stakes success was at Listed level. As yet unbeaten three-year-old Light Fantastic (Danehill Dancer-Leica Or Not) did his ageing mother proud as he is her 8th foal. Right behind him is the G1 leviathan Apache Cat (Lion Cavern-Tennessee Blaze) and leading filly Zarita (Pentire-Gin Player) who are both 7th foals. Six (21%) of the 29 G1 winners were first foals. This is a higher figure than for the other divisions and seems to support my belief that when you get a good first foal it can be outstanding.

There was also only one 9th foal amongst the 39 G2 winners, Serious Speed (Royal Academy-Twitter), also a G1 winner earlier during the restricted Melbourne spring. Light Fantastic and Zarita also won at G2 level and there were three other successful 7th foals: Gallant Tess (Galileo-Dragoncello), El Cambio (Commands-Chaparra) and Portillo (Red Ransom-Snowdrift). There were only four (10%) G2 winning first foals.

The 58 Group 3 winners also had a fairly youthful profile, with a lower average foal number than Group 2. The ‘oldest’ foal was an 8th, Lucky Diva (Perugino-Lucky Witch). She is a rising seven-year-old, a sterling winner of 11 races, but apart from a Listed win as a two-year-old in Adelaide (no offence) this is her only other black-type victory. Apart from El Cambio, also a winner at G2 level, above, there were three G2 winning 7th foals: Musidora (Rock Of Gibraltar-Nice Dancing), recently sold for $1 million; Hoystar (Danzero-Professionelle) and Rezone (Electronic Zone-Lochrene), an honest horse but no threat to Rising Fast. Seven first foals (12%) were G3 winners.

The old-age pensioners figured better at Listed level, a much bigger sample with 135 individual winners. Taking the Gold Medal for longevity is the American-bred mare Waterford Fair whose 14th foal is Single Rose (by Irgun) who reeled off 1200m in 1:08.76 to win at Eagle Farm in March. It is the rising six-year-old’s only piece of black type and none of the previous 13 foals out of her dam has any. In hot pursuit with their Zimmer frames are two mares successful with their 13th foals: Verte Moss (by Twig Moss, dam of Sir Sensible, by Intergaze), and On The Rise (by Crested Wave, dam of Ready To Lift, by More Than Ready). On The Rise, whose career I was involved in during my Haunui Farm days, has bred four black-type horses but Verte Moss is distinguished only by Sir Sensible, winner of the Toowoomba Cup no less. The only other double-digit producer at Listed level was Hot Spice who churned out the good Perth gelding Yuro (by Fusaichi Pegasus) as her 10th effort, and her 4th black-type result. First foals really didn’t do much better at Listed level with just 12.6% (17) of the winning individuals.

If the mare produced the foal after an ‘empty’ year, then it’s not likely to give you an edge.

This seems to fly in the face of a widely held view (probably supported by a wider study than mine) that foals produced the year after a mare has been rested or barren are often superior. In the sample I’ve looked at, there’s a sliding scale, from just one G1 winner so produced (4.3%), to 26 Listed winners (22%). [Obviously, I have deducted all the first foalers from the sample]. Stud Book figures for the last five years show the percentage of registered mares not covered each season in the 20 – 23% range, so even allowing for some non-commercial distortions in the figures, do the results this year suggest this may be an over-rated theory?

If the mare’s had a few foals and none of the earlier ones has been a stakeswinner or stakes-placed, don’t worry too much – only one-third of the dams of stakeswinners have had any previous black-type record.

Looked at another way, a mare which has already left a stakes-placegetter or stakeswinner is a reasonably good chance to provide further stakes production. In arriving at the above generalisation, the figures are skewed by the large numbers of mares in the sample which have only had one or two prior foals before the stakeswinner itself, so she hasn't had a big opportunity by that stage. It might be better to say, for example, that if you’re looking at a 4th foal or later, and if the mare has already had a black-type performer, there’s an increased chance she will have another – you might be looking at it!

Your horse has nearly twice as good a chance of being a stakeswinner if its dam won a race.

64% of all the black type races were won by horses whose dams had won a race of some description. 36% of the race winners had non-winning dams. 12% of G1 winners had Group winning dams, the highest percentage of Group winning dams in any category. Some notable G1 winners had unraced dams, e.g. Weekend Hussler, Sarerra, Zarita, Samantha Miss.

If you bought your horse at auction, it has a better chance of being a Group winner than if you didn’t.

That’s the evidence so far this year. I expect gift vouchers from Magic Millions and Inglis for pointing this out. The highest proportion is in G1 – 21 of the 29 winners (72%) are in the official records as sold at auction. In G2 and G3 it’s 61.5% and 62% respectively, then it drops to 56.3% amongst the Listed winners. What does this mean? I interpret it as suggesting most of the best horses have been going through the auction system. Comforting. What of the future?

If you did buy it at auction, the more you paid the more likely your horse will be a Group winner.

I found this one interesting. Again I expect to receive a couple of paid luxury holidays from the auction houses, for encouraging future trade! David and Mark, my address is ….

But back to reality – the average prices paid for this year’s G1, G2 and G3 winners were $218,523, $258,395 and $220,520 respectively. But the Listed winners cost only $104,720 on average. The medians were $130,000, $150,000, $80,000 and $60,000. Plenty of scope for buyers at all levels but, by and large, you get what you pay for. Price is usually determined by strong catalogue page and good physical type which in turn seem to have a direct link to future performance.

The most expensive G1 winner this year has been Samantha Miss (Redoute’s Choice-Milliyet) at $1.5 million, followed by Forensics (Flying Spur-Prove It) at $900,000 and Shinzig (Danehill-Shindig) at $400,000. At the other end of the scale were Grand Journey (Good Journey-Grand Prospect) costing just $6,500, Heavenly Glow (Spinning World-Starsphere) $10,000 and Eskimo Queen (Shinko King-Cold Type) who went, remarkably, three times through an auction ring: for $2,500 as a weanling, $10,000 as a yearling and $25,000 as a two-year-old. What did I tell you? He who paid the most got the most!

Von Costa de Hero (Encosta de Lago-Piavonic) was the most valued G2 winner at $1.2 million, followed by Forensics then Portillo (Red Ransom-Snowdrift) $850,000 and Fravashi (Falbrav-Angelic Smile) at $550,000. Note three of those were found by the former Woodlands team - well, I should say found by several but afforded by only one. Geniuses were those who paid $2,000 for Acey Ducey (Xaar-Deduce), Swiss Ace (Secret Savings-Rapid Serve) $8,500 and Belong To Many (Belong To Me-Foil) at $20,000, but the gold standard is Racing to Win at $40,000 ($3,350,335 and counting).

In G3, Viennese (Redoute’s Choice-Snippets’ Lass) set them back $1.4 million and for those with long memories Offenbach (Danehill-Push A Venture) was knocked down for a cool mill. The next highest-priced G3 winner this year has been Wilander (Exceed And Excel-Scandinavia) at $625,000. At considerably less cost but achieving the same status have been the likes of Action Pak (Star Pak-Mixed Affair) $5,750, Translate (Love A Dane-Secret’s Out) $6,000 and Coniston Gem (Greig-No Telling) $9,000.

Tops of the Listed winners’ table are the aforementioned Portillo $850,000 and Hoystar $400,000 who also won at a higher grade, followed by Delta Girl (General Nediym-Etoile Centieme) at $380,000 and Victory Chant (General Nediym-Classic Status) at an Adelaide sale record-setting $340,000. The el-cheapos included Racer’s Run (Racer’s Edge-Jolimont) for $4,500, Pentacity (Pentire-Insistant) for $5,000 and Devil Inside (Langfuhr-Pink Moccasion) for $8,000.