When You're Hot, You're Hot

It surprised no one to see a yearling by Exceed And Excel make the top price at the Melbourne Premier Sale despite the whitewash of his juveniles in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes eight days previously. Temporary setback only – Sugar Babe took up the slack at Rosehill today.

His only serious opposition at the sale was Hussonet (USA) who sired the G1 Blue Diamond/Oakleigh Plate double and he did indeed come up with the second top priced lot. The three Redoute’s Choices in the sale were designed by a committee – unworthy of a place in a ‘select’ sale – I doubt there was a live bid on either of his colts.

What was surprising, however, was the value - $750,000 paid by Darley – placed on the top lot, the colt out of Gentle Call (NZ), sold by Peter and Pauline Liston’s Three Bridges Thoroughbreds.

It’s been well documented that the Listons bought the colt alongside his dam, who was in foal to Choisir, paying $140,000 for the 3-in-1 package at last year’s Sydney Easter Broodmare Sale. You’d have to say, with 20-20 hindsight, that John Muir’s Neapean Stud Farm moved them on one year too early. Moral of the story – never sell a weanling from a sire’s second crop.

The $750,000 price tag more than doubled the amount paid for any yearling member of this family, the next closest being $360,000 for the colt’s three-quarter sister Unfinishedbusiness (by Redoute’s Choice) at Easter 2005. Before that, $150,000 was the best paid, for a Postponed (USA)-Tough Call (NZ) colt at Melbourne 2005, and before that $135,000 for a Zabeel (NZ)-Aggressive (NZ) colt at Easter 2004. To date, these three horses have won a total of two races.

Despite a superficially impressive catalogue page, the reason why this family has been a modest seller is because virtually all of them have been dedicated wet trackers, racing almost exclusively in New Zealand. This family eats mud.

Of the 51 New Zealand wins clocked up by the horses mentioned on the catalogue page, 33 have been on tracks registered as ‘slow’ or ‘heavy’. Bear in mind that’s New Zealand slow and heavy – New Zealand ‘heavy’ often means ‘abandoned’ in Australia.

Gentle Call and her two Listed winning half-siblings Call Spades and Tough Call won 15 races, 12 of them in a bog. The sting has also been out of the ground when Gentle Call’s two winning progeny have scored. (One of them is named Tough Call, the same name as its auntie - go figure).

Classic Fame (USA), the sire of the dam of the top priced yearling, was a disappointing sire in New Zealand, getting just five stakeswinners of handicapping quality (1.5% of his foals). As a broodmare sire, he hasn’t yet produced a stakeswinner. The best of his daughters’ progeny so far, Venus Serena, was herself a swimmer, winning three of her four races on slow.

All of which goes to show the commercial pulling power of a sire like Exceed And Excel. When you’re hot, you’re hot. My bet is the colt stays in Melbourne where they produce wet tracks to order.

5 comments:

kloyd0306 said...

Steve,

You analysis of the hidden depths of the sale-topper's pedigree underlines exactly why you are so highly regarded.

I am certain to be showing my age but it used to be that the Resurgents and the Head Hunters were always looked at as being wet (read heavy) trackers. Your research into the apparent wet-track performance(s) of the the black-type winners in this family should be a lesson to all buyers.

Sadly, sale-toppers have a disasterous record in general but something has to top the sale, otherwise the auction system would be replaced with retail thoroughbred outlet malls.

I wonder if any auction house would ever entertain a comparison of a yearling sale's gross with total stakes earned (after say a five or six years of results). As was once said to the Rt Hon James Hacker - "it would be a most courageous thing to do".

I look forward to your musings and amusings.

Have a successful time at MM.

Kloyd

STEVE BREM said...

Resurgents and Head Hunters (and Able Seamans and Oakvilles?) .. some of them could really swim! I think you flatter me somewhat - it's not so much deep analysis as it is having lived for a few decades with one's memory still intact. At some point, during the 'off' season, I'll do something about sales toppers and costs v prizemoney. I recall a few years ago Windsor Park Stud promoted the fact that if you'd bought every one of their yearlings over a certain period of time you would be well in front. Fair enough, too. Remember Beaumont Babe? What a SUPER job she did.

kloyd0306 said...

You may need two “off seasons” and another EI outbreak to do an entire sales catalogue. Besides, which auction would you choose? I doubt if any of the companies would look forward to the results.

Yes, Beaumont Babe. You must have had some good vibes about her because you made a very attractive offer with a good deal of persistence. I hope you added her to your resume of astute purchases.

Wasn’t her half-sister Montrose Lass placed on the market at around the same time? I seem to remember thinking that being by the more commercial Gay Gambler, “Lass” had a little more going for her than “Babe”. Their efforts on the track were quite similar, but as matrons there is no comparison. “Babe” was indeed SUPER.

The masterstroke (unintended pun) may have been the Masterclass mating. Were you and “Babe” still at Waikato when that was arranged?

If another Devil Moon comes along, the second generation might be even better.

Anonymous said...

Steve,

Just score the results of ALL the million dollar plus yearlings.
I reckon the results will be horrifying

STEVE BREM said...

kloyd0306, the Masterclass mating occurred in 1993 by which time I was long gone.

Randwick, it's not a horse's fault that humans want to pay a poultice for it. The prices might be a bigger commentary on those who pay them than on the horses themselves. However, price generally reflects expectation so it would be informative to see if the seven-figures group out-performed or under-performed the population as a whole.