It must be something IN the water ...

Looking at northern hemisphere sire figures through 2007, as published by Bloodstock Journal in the USA today (18 December 2007) , it's proof positive that the equator divides two separate worlds.

BJ's charts include, I believe, all NH countries except Japan, and the stallions are ranked by progeny earnings.

Six of the top 10 on the Leading Sires list have stood in Australasia. Behind record-breaking Smart Strike (Mr Prospector), at No. 2, comes Danehill (Danzig), his international influence still pervasive well after his demise.

At No. 4 is Distorted Humor (Forty Niner), definitely unloved by breeders when standing at Grand Lodge Thoroughbreds in Victoria - but, then, he wasn't a G1 winner which experts/major studs keep telling me is essential in a sire prospect but which is just bulldust. (One day I'll publish a list of outstanding non-G1 winning sires). And Grand Lodge Thoroughbreds, not being an Establishment establishment, probably lacked for an Establishment clientele.

At No. 5 is Langfuhr (Danzig), a Vinery shuttler who got handy gallopers but no G1 winners out here. He's followed at No. 6 by the enigmatic six times G1 winner Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat). After serving the creme de la creme and with his ANZ oldest progeny now four-year-olds, Giant's Causeway has five stakeswinners - four of them fillies. Only five horses have earned as much as his initial service fee cost and his winners-to-runners stats are under 50%. Increasingly it's looking like 'The Iron Horse' might become 'A Train Wreck'; bring the jury in in another 12 months. But we won't be seeing him again.

Position No. 7 is held by the beautiful and magnificent Galileo (Sadler's Wells) who blazed into Coolmore the same year as Giant's Causeway. Galileo is somewhat stouter than Giant's Causeway and it would be short-sighted to dismiss any stamina-inclined sire when his oldest runners have just turned four (though Australian breeders and trainers have been doing exactly that for the last 50 years). But, basically, Galileo has already been declared dead in the water out here. His colts definitely need to get busy. Two of his good northern hemisphere sons Purple Moon and Mahler filled the placings in this year's G1(R) Melbourne Cup, something his Australian sons don't yet look like doing even if they run the 3200m as a relay.

In at No. 10 comes Montjeu (Sadler's Wells), the classicist who brought his sublime six-times G1 winning record to New Zealand in 2001, so his oldest are five-year-olds. This guy has five stakeswinners which is 3.2% of his starters but barely one per crop on average, including one G1 winner, Sharvasti - but if you knew that you're probably the Trivial Pursuit champion down at your local.

So, apart from water swirling down the sink in reverse directions, why is there such a dramatic difference between the expression of genes in the two hemispheres? If you thought you were about to have the answer spelled out for you, you're wrong. I'm not even going to attempt to run through the possible reasons except to say: (a) I'm not altogether convinced of the popular "local horses for local conditions" postulation, and (b) it's only since the advent of the shuttle that this phenomenon has occurred because, prior to that of course, stallions stayed put in one place. And in those days they did not cover 150+ mares in a season, twice.

Going back to Bloodstock Journal's charts, seeing aforementioned Galileo atop the Leading International Juvenile Sires list has to be, in Australasian terms, an extract from Ripley's.

Moving on to Leading International Second Crop Sires, it's headed by Darley's Street Cry (Machiavellian) who thus far in Australasia has sired two stakes-placegetters. Underwhelming, but of course it must be stressed that the EI outbreak has given these second-croppers no chance yet - unless they were lucky enough to have lots of Victorian runners during that shallow Melbourne spring. When I look at Street Cry's pedigree and race record I see later maturing middle distance aptitude, so his time may come though he's probably now too 'valuable' in the north to come back (just have a look at what went straight back home when the Eastern Creek gates were opened post-EI - officially opened that is! - or, just as enlighteningly, what didn't go straight back home).

Next to Street Cry on the Second Crop Sires list is Johannesburg (Hennessy), Coolmore's quadruple G1 winning two-year-old marvel. This guy has got one stakes-placegetter so far and just 33% winners-to-runners: it's early days but he's got a lot to do. Fellow Coolmore inmate Rock Of Gibraltar (Danehill) is third and he, at least, is doing it well here with 10 southern hemisphere-conceived stakeswinners already, albeit only three of them are colts. Fourth-ranked Invincible Spirit (Green Desert) has only had 16 runners in Australasia at time of writing, so what does that say? And sixth-placed Orientate (Mt Livermore) has had just one more, and my mail is he won't be applying for his passport again!

So what a weird and wondrous world it is. The only thing you can say with a degree of confidence is that when many of the stallions mentioned above - the world's elite we're told - pack their bags for the trip down under, they forget to pack their 'run genes'.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Steve

I am glad to read you have a good opinion of the sire Galileo.I have 2 myself at present 2yo & yearling & are correct types.I really believe so many of us 'aussies'only want to see our own colonial type stallions succeed.
In Australia great racehorses so often produce little.
The Big O has been a flop at stud.Champion mares Leilani,Surround,Emancipation left little however their daughters left better ones on the track.
Considering the number of mares that the local stallions get they should have plenty of winners.
Dash for Cash,Delago Brom,Falvelon and Reset have to me been gross under achievers ????
The Second-string overseas shuttle stallions don't get anywhere nears the mares

Anonymous said...

I don't know if I'd call it a "good opinion", more that I think you shouldn't sack a horse like him until he has some mature crops by which to be judged. Overseas, a stallion's respect seems to last longer than in Australia. I believe racing largely mirrors society in general and this is a country in a hurry. Unfortunately, nature is not a respector of origins when it comes to stallion success. Success is relative anyway - we have about 1,500 sires competing for winners in Australia and only about 23,000 races a year to win. 80%-plus of all stallions will leave no significant mark, that's just the way it is. Reset has barely had a runner so I don't know how you can pot him yet, the other three are what I'd call regional rather than national, and their mares would have been mostly mid-grade. You might be interested but I bought Emancipation for $180,000 at a Sydney Easter Broodmare Sale and took her to NZ, carrying the dam of G1 winner Railings. (Railings's half-sister Femme Liberte won at Scone on Sunday 30 December). Emancipation had a heart attack and died virtually in my arms aged 16. We did an autopsy - she had a massive heart. I thought she was awesome mare and as we know hergrand-daughter Virage de Fortune is the most expensive mare sold at auction in Australia.