Musings From a Glorious Day At Canterbury

Hard to see any colt which ran in Saturday’s Todman Stakes, other than Related, having much chance in the Golden Slipper unless the race falls away unexpectedly. Related (Elusive Quality-Cousins, by Danehill) should have won by three lengths. If he had, he would have become only the second stakeswinner in his family in four generations. He’s the eighth foal of his dam and the fifth to earn minor black-type – but on this debut performance it’ll be capital letters for him soon.
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The Todman winner Krupt has an interesting pedigree. He is 3f x 3f Grand Luxe. A former smart two-year-old, the tiny filly French Braids, was 4f x 3f to Grand Luxe’s dam Fanfreluche. With the crossing of Encosta de Lago and Flying Spur common enough now, we'll see what strike rate this pattern comes up with. Almost all the Fanfreluche family must be in the southern hemisphere by now.
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Beadman is a freak.
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Am I right in thinking Hips Don’t Lie (Stravinsky-Procure, by Centaine) is the first New Zealand-bred winner of the Reisling Stakes in 36 years? I remember her full-sister going through Sydney Easter in 2004, in the Trelawney draft. She was a 'talking horse' and made what seemed a staggering sum, $625,000. Named Luna Belle, she never got to the races and was sent to the USA as a three-year-old. James Bester picked up the younger, faster, version for $200,000.
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If you knock two zeros off the amount paid for Hips Don’t Lie you get the amount paid for Acey Ducey as a yearling at the Magic Millions Winter Sale in 2006. Goodwood Farm’s Kerrie Tibbey, who reared Dance Hero and who consigned Acey Ducey (Xaar-Deduce, by Known Fact), couldn’t get a bid for him so she and her partner stumped up the two grand. Moral of the story: don’t let Patinack, Darley, Inghams et al throw you off your game.
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Krupt, Mentality and Acey Ducey, three of the first four winners at Canterbury, are all out of USA-bred mares.
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Gelding Hoystar last year has made a racehorse out of him. He and Hips Don’t Lie are out of Centaine mares. How good are they! With four stakeswinners by four different sires, Professionelle (NZ) may be the best of them. She did the impossible – she left a triple Gr 2 winner to Supremo. Centaine, yet another non-Group 1 winner to make a decent sire.
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The Fuzz was a horse I quoted to two leading Sydney trainers, supposedly on the lookout for a good potential stayer from New Zealand, when he had raced just four times over there in 2006. They didn’t bite so he ended up at Lindsay Park where they are having a lot of fun with him with now more than half a million in earnings. He should pay his way in Sydney. His NZ breeder/owners are still in him. I won't dob in the two Sydney trainers but Gai and Anthony are clues.
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In the next few weeks we are going to see some ridiculously over-valued mares go through sales rings in Sydney, the Gold Coast and Melbourne. Pull the pedigree out and have a think what Tuesday Joy or her half-sister Sunday Joy might be worth. Including themselves, 10 Group 1 winners in the first two dams.
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Forensics’ finishing speed is awesome. At track record pace, she put that field away in a matter of strides at Canterbury, continuing a banner day for her sire Flying Spur – where has he been all these years? – and Arrowfield sires in general. The more I think about it, the more I’m inclined to believe that Darley have got an absolute bargain in Woodlands and all it embraces. Selling it off lock-stock-and-Lonhro averted the Ingham family from having to confront inevitable future issues but when the Forensics presentation was taking place, the poignancy of the moment was palpable. I’ll be able to tell my grand-daughter that I was there when the cerise legend was dismantled, like when Jack Kennedy was shot. It’ll take a while to feel the same way about the maroon. One person whose stature has grown a thousandfold is Peter Snowden, a class act.
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Forensics (bred by Vinery) is out of the Dehere mare Prove It, from the family of Snippets. Sean Buckley got a rare bargain when he bought Prove It in 2005, in foal to Flying Spur, for $380,000. But after producing a colt that October she died six weeks later. The colt was earmarked for the yearling sales – he would have been offered at Easter last year, just a couple of weeks after Forensics had won the Slipper – but he had an injury on the near side rump and hock early on and never underwent a sales prep. Now named Anton Pillar, the colt has been over with David Hayes but is yet to race. The colt’s name is apt. According to Wikipedia, in British and British-derived legal systems, an Anton Piller order (frequently misspelt Anton Pillar order) is a court order which provides for the right to search premises and seize evidence without prior warning. This is used in order to prevent the destruction of incriminating evidence, particularly in cases of alleged trademark, copyright or patent infringements. Sean’s latest South African recruit, the four-year-old mare Dane Julia (by Caesour, the same sire as his other South African Gr 1 winner Perfect Promise), was unleashed at Caulfield yesterday and was a mightily impressive first-up third. If we think the Dubai World Cup meeting is all it’s cracked up to be, then recent results suggest the standard of the better South African horses is very high indeed. They have been knocking off good races internationally for a few years now.
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New Zealand’s only Gr 1 race for fillies and mares, the New Zealand Bloodstock Breeders Stakes, 1600m, was won Saturday by three-year-old filly Special Mission, a 16-to-1 shot. Previously a dual Listed winner, Special Mission is by Tracy’s Element’s brother (and Danasinga’s half-brother) Towkay. She’s the third Gr 1 winner for the sire who started off in 1999 as an el-cheapo at $3,000 fee, inching his way up to $10,000 in 2007. He currently has 5.4% stakeswinners-to-runners. He’s only had 18 career runners in Australia and 11 of them have won. Special Mission is from the family of Chris Waller’s durable gelding Double Dare.
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A couple of horses whose names are kind of familiar went around at meetings on Saturday. Lloyd Williams has a colt named Meld whose earlier incarnation was a filly of 1952 by Alycidon from Daily Double and regarded as one of the best fillies ever to race in England. Unbeaten at three, she won the Thousand Guineas, Oaks, St Leger and Coronation Stakes. Five of her sons were imported to Australia and New Zealand with one standout: Mellay (by Never Say Die) a marvelous sire based in the deep south of the South Island of New Zealand. I recall some years after Mellay’s death visiting the Anderton home at White Robe Lodge, Mosgiel, only to find that Mellay was still there – his head was mounted on the living room wall!
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The other name to catch my eye was Mainbrace, a three-year-old colt by Principality who sneaked into third place at Ararat on Saturday. His earlier incarnation is rated one of the greatest New Zealand thoroughbreds in history. A 1947 chestnut colt by Admiral’s Luck-Maneroo, the earlier Mainbrace wiped the board in 23 of his 25 starts including 15 of 16 as a three-year-old. He never set hoof in Australia. Just as well, as he belonged in the league of Carbine, Phar Lap, Desert Gold, Kindergarten and Tulloch and it would have needed arsenic to stop him. (Apollo Eleven?). Legendary American jockey John Longden came out to New Zealand to test drive the colt pending his sale to the USA but the sale fell through. Put to stud, Mainbrace was a failure though it’s fair to say ‘colonial’ horses even as great as Mainbrace weren’t joyfully embraced by breeders in those days. He had a sod of a temperament and hated the starting gates. In all but one of his starts he was positioned actually outside the widest gate – being ‘sent to the outer’ was a common enough practice with rogues until the seventies – or in a special double-space gate within the structure. It’s fortunate he lived when he did – a horse like him would be on the scrap heap today in the name of fair play for the punter.
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Though I only listened with one ear, I thought I heard at least two of the three finalists in the Myer Fashions On The Field at Canterbury say their winning outfits were inspired by the '40s look. I must admit they looked a whole lot snazzier than the usual gargoyles paraded on these occasions. Here's a thought: if the '40s are back in fashion, is there a chance for me?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Enjoy reading your posts,keep them up and Towkay might be a good alternitive to a son of Last Tycoon after O'reilly's price hike?

Anonymous said...

Steve

Just on the 2yos from yesterday's Canterbury meeting - and you can throw in those from last week's Randwick meeting as well.

Whilst I'd love to own any of Hips Don't Lie, Dubai to Sydney and co, as a spectator I am left a little bit cold by the 2yos this season after Amelia's Dream's demise. She slaughtered these horses, which have subsequently proved themselves competitive with the best of the rest. It's hard to get too excited about the Slipper when the stand out is missing. Reminds a little of 1999, when Amelia's dad, the stand out of his year, was pulled out late.

By "ridiculously over-valued" broodmares, I infer you mean ridiculously over valued by their present owners. Breeders will presumably be cashed up after Patinack's recent spending spree, which will doubtless continue at Easter. This in turn will push up the prices of broodmares at the sales you mention. Have we got to the stage now where there is better bang for your broodmare buck overseas, especially at Keeneland?

STEVE BREM said...

pt, O'Reilly is one of the few stallions to deserve his price hike so I have no quarrel there. The opportunities the two stallions have had can't be compared. O'Reilly had 657 live foals in his first eight seasons versus 354 for Towkay, and much the better mares overall. Hence Towkay has been a domestic NZ sire (plus Hong Kong) with not much appreciation in Australia. Putting that commercial consideration aside, he is a good winner-getter and if that sireline has appeal then he stacks up pretty well.

STEVE BREM said...

Agree, there have been few exciting moments from the 2YOs this season apart from A.D. I saw Sebring at Tulloch Lodge on Sunday; he's the wildcard given the setback he's had. It will be some feat by Gai if he wins (even though he's unbeaten in three he's borderline to gain a start at this stage). He spiked a temperature and had to be medicated; the withholding period ends within a day or so of the race. Perhaps we under-rate Augusta Proud - one hasn't been found to beat her so far.

STEVE BREM said...

By 'over-valued', I was thinking more of what breeders were prepared to pay for them. The USA market is deep and deserves consideration by anyone looking to build up their portfolio. The downside to imported mares is that, initially, their first foal or two sell moderately until they establish some local form for buyers to be guided by, then the returns can increase dramatically. So you have to be mindful of how much you pay for the mare in the first place and select carefully.

Anonymous said...

Steve, talking of Acey Ducey (a good value buy) what about our good mate David Brideoake's effort to win the WA Oaks and Derby in a week with his $6,ooo Good Journey filly GRAND JOURNEY and out of a Flying Spur mare. There is still hope for us

STEVE BREM said...

Yes David (both Davids), fantastic results. Repaid the purchase price 100 times over already!!! You never know what you've got in this game until you try it. I've made some mention of her in my latest post.