You Asked For It

It’s never been the intention to turn the blog into a form guide but to requests from my readers in Tashkent, Hanoi, Madrid, Dusseldorf and Johnstown, Pennsylvania, I give my impressions of this Saturday's Caulfield Cup (this post will be removed after the running of the race so that I am not embarrassed in perpetuity) –

Weekend Hussler (by Hussonet): love him as we do, but still hard for me to come into him after a six lengths tiring defeat at WFA at his most recent start. Can get the trip on his dam’s side and if he is a champion he will overcome the Hussonet distance limitation and the weight turnaround. The moderate pace may help him but he doesn’t give me any confidence.

Maldivian (NZ) (by Zabeel): the golden rule is ‘back every Zabeel in races 2000m and longer’, so on that basis alone you can’t dismiss him. He hasn’t found the line in any of his five races this preparation and a couple of gear changes have been made to help him – or in desperation. In last year’s EI Group 1-Restricted Caulfield Cup he went to the barrier almost even money and we shouldn’t forget that. He’s not going as well, and his wide gate forces his hand tactically, but I think at Caulfield his running style puts him in the picture and he will beat more than beat him.

Master O’Reilly (NZ) (by O’Reilly) (pictured): The key fact is his near-perfect record at the 2400m+ distance range. Won the race last year with 1 kg above the minimum, this year he carries 5 kgs above, and let's face it, last year's edition was a total farce. His preparation has a sense of timing about it, he’s third-up here and this breed is happiest when their racing diet is light. Hard to imagine him out of the frame, wieght and all.

Fiumicino (NZ) (by Zabeel): being by Zabeel he goes into the multiples automatically but other than that there isn’t a form reference to recommend him. Doesn’t look particularly well weighted. Has a fine ‘Cups’ heritage but I have to risk him.

Kibbutz (NZ) (by Golan): scratched

Nom du Jeu (NZ) (by Montjeu): High class animal having to contend with gate 20 minus scratchings. Appears to have come back well at four though reportedly knocked by the effects of vaccination en route to Melbourne. Stays every step of the distance. Will go back and be ridden for luck, a bit harder to get at Caulfield than at Randwick. I feel he has a class edge on most of these and I will be keeping him very safe.

Mad Rush (USA) (by Lemon Drop Kid): How do you measure these horses? By the sex appeal of their assistant trainers? Other than the professional respect his connections undoubtedly deserve, it’s hard to make a cogent case for him other than D Oliver has climbed aboard, he comes down in weight, and in the past some pretty moderate imports have stood up in these races. I don’t know why the Caulfield Cup has to be his first stakes win, so I have to let him run against me.

All The Good (Ire) (by Diesis): most of my comments from the above apply. His win in the modified Ebor Handicap (the Newburgh run over 2700m this year at Newbury) suggests Melbourne Cup to me. As a three-quarter brother to triple Oaks champion Ramruma he has the pedigree, but what Godolphin horse hasn’t?

Douro Valley (by Encosta de Lago): Fit, in form, well drawn and second last year. Persuasive factors. He also carries considerably less weight than in any of his past five starts. Undoubtedly, he will be the horse pouring on the pressure from the 800m trying to put his rivals to the sword. He is a terrific example of all-too-rare durability and longevity and there’s little between him and Maldivian on form. My only wish is that the Caulfield Cup isn’t won by a horse having its 49th start with just eight wins but I don’t know how you can keep him out of the dogfight.

Ice Chariot (by Chariot): This is a very good horse, just unfashionable. His lead-up form has been fine; in fact his third placing in the Shannon Quality two starts back saw him return one of the highest ratings of his career. His last win was on this track 13 months ago but he is probably best remembered for his complete no-shows in the Caulfield Cup-Saab-Melbourne Cup races of 2006. A horse that cannot make its own luck but nonetheless he is entitled to much better than a bolter’s chance on a good track; he’s stout-hearted.

Viewed (by Scenic): Goes in with just two runs under his belt. Routed his rivals in the G2 Brisbane Cup on a heavy track back in June, but Fulmonti, Sky Biscuit and Scenic Shot were the ones chasing him home. I’m aware he has a certain aura about him and he has looked good in lower grades but I’m not in his corner.

Littorio (by Bellotto): The reasons he has won only 2 of his 14 starts are that he has to lump around his maturing 17.2 hands frame and cannot make any of his own luck in running. But he’s a terrific grinding stayer with the right form lines. Has to weigh in somewhere.

Red Ruler (NZ) (by Viking Ruler): Good class four-year-old whose second placings in the AJC Derby and Kelt Capital Stakes (two weeks ago) give him legitimate credentials. Some contention that the 1 gate won’t suit him but Corey Brown is at the top of his game and he’ll be looking for an out early in the piece. As long as the track is in the good-dead range he can act effectively. May have traffic issues but good enough to run into it.

Boundless (NZ) (by Van Nistelrooy): Figures to get the perfect run and is fourth-up. Nom du Jeu and Red Ruler ran her down narrowly in the Kelt but she is good at this trip, Caulfield suits, and this team know how to travel a winner. To think a Van Nistelrooy could win a Caulfield Cup you’d have to have rocks in your head but she gets everything from her mother’s side – Star Way, Sir Tristram, Zamazaan. Historical oddity: shares the same name as the Group-winning full brother to the outstanding NZ-bred Cadiz (Targui-Infinity) winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup in 1963. The former Boundless’ best win came at 2400m.

Dolphin Jo (by Dolphin Street): Breeding oddity inasmuch as his five wins have been from 2200m to 2800m, yet he is by a sprinter-miler out of a grand-daughter of Without Fear. But he has Sobig and Better Boy lurking in the depths of his pedigree and shares the same fourth dam as Miss Badoura who upset the applecart at Caulfield last week. An admirable campaigner in career-best form but just misses out on a class basis.

Riva San (by Any Given Sunday): Last season’s Queensland Oaks and Derby winner who also won twice as a two-year-old. One of those horses that pops out of nowhere – by an unraced son of Sunday Silence and she’s the only stakes performer in the first four removes of her family – commercial breeders just love those G1 winners but they would tell you that as it’s over 2400m it doesn’t matter anyway, unless it's one of theirs! Should have won her last start at Randwick over 2000m and looks to be peaking. I have great respect for this yard.

Zagreb (by Zabeel): By Zabeel, so include. Glen Boss, so include. David Hayes, so include. Young stayer on his way to something really significant and there’s been money to suggest this could be the start of it, though he didn’t fire in the Turnbull. May need some luck in running but has a miracle-worker on board whose lust for G1 wins is legendary. People aren’t buying so many flatscreen TVs these days so Gerry needs the money and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets some here.

Guillotine (NZ) (by Montjeu): Four-year-old half-brother to Melbourne Cup winner Efficient and highly capable in his own right though he’s got the Montjeu fizziness which needs harnessing and he’s yet to win beyond 1900m. I thought his win over 1600m three starts back was absolutely outstanding. The horse was always going to mature into something which has been fortuitous for David Hayes who has had him for just this preparation. The big question is, where will he be in the run from his outside gate? I just question whether he’s got the mental tractability for a race of this pressure; he has the physical ability.

Barbaricus (by Lion Hunter): If he wins, they should make the race Group 3. Can’t think of any reason why he should.

Newport (by Encosta de Lago): As a Brisbane Cup and Metropolitan winner he looks unlucky not to have made the field. Has an excellent record at 2400m but needs a scratching to get in.

Red Lord (by Redoute’s Choice): Has gone like a bomb in Sydney this spring but this is a big step up in class even if he did get a start.

My selections:

1. Boundless (NZ)
2. Master O’Reilly (NZ)
3. Nom du Jeu (NZ)
4. Douro Valley

Best bolter: Ice Chariot.

There’s no bias evident, is there?