First Boozeday In November

I’ve consulted Weatherzone (see sidebar) and it tells me there’s no reason for VRC or RVL management to weak-kneedly cave in to the blackmail from certain overseas participants to doctor the track for Tuesday’s Cup.

Undignified and condescending comments reportedly attributed to overseas connections – including one supposed Australian – about what should and shouldn’t be convince me that some people still have trouble coming to grips with the fact that the Empire and Australia parted ways long ago.

There’s a likelihood of some precipitation each day including Tuesday, so no need to alter the natural status of the track. No more Makybe Divas please. Weatherzone predicts it will be quite gusty so ladies put a hatpin through your fascinators and tie your miniskirts down.

Interesting aspect of this year’s field and a sign of the times: these stables don’t have a runner: Hayes, Freedman, Waterhouse, Snowden, Hawkes, Price, Moody, Rogerson.

The weight scale is compressed, I think it’s a strongly competitive Cup field. We should see a stirring contest.

SEPTIMUS (Ire) 58.5 10 6h Sadler’s Wells-Caladira, by Darshaan Aidan O’Brien/Johnny Murtagh. You take your life in your hands bringing a Sadler’s Wells to Australia. But he’s won 5 of his 8 starts on tracks rated ‘good’ so I don’t see what their beef is. Shortest win 1408m as a 2YO maiden, longest win 3621m of the Doncaster Cup. Pertinent fact: in only two of his 12 starts has he been in a field bigger than nine. The first was at his debut when there were 12 rivals, the other was in the Epsom Derby where he finished 12th of 18 and was never closer in running. If he lands midfield I hope he doesn’t get claustrophobic or sulk. His two closest stakeswinning relations got their black type in Sweden and India.

MASTER O’REILLY (NZ) 55 6 6g O’Reilly-Without Remorse, by Bahkaroff (USA) Danny O’Brien/Vlad Duric. Last year’s favourite. I think this is the one he’s been trained for. Cox Plate run was just trackwork. Has only once carried this weight successfully, in a Class 1 race at Seymour. Must get himself handier in running. How many Melbourne Cup winners have a Golden Slipper winner in their pedigree? I have some nagging reservations.

HONOLULU (Ire) 54.5 24 5h Montjeu (Ire)-Cerulean Sky, by Darshaan Aidan O’Brien/Colm O’Donoghue. He won’t be hanging about from the draw but of course he won’t be a pacemaker. Has run more marathons than Abebe Bikila (lately, anyway). Winning range 2414m to 4369m. His rider has never ridden him in a race before – probably his work rider. Has a magnificent pedigree and some good formlines. There will be more people at Flemington than your average crowd at Roscommon or Limerick; may fire up and lose his cool in the Cup day cauldron.

C’EST LA GUERRE (NZ) 54 5 4g Shinko King (Ire)-La Magnifique, by Kampala (GB) John Sadler/Brett Prebble. This year’s NZ Derby winner. There are some heavy-hitters in this horse’s ownership including Singo and leading music industry identities, they must have paid a squillion for him so Tuesday is get-square day. If it happened to hose down his chances would magnify. His last two runs have been very good. There are no stayers in his family so he is the black NZ sheep. Dedicated back runner but he’ll be going forward when others are looking for an armchair. Real smokey.

NOM DU JEU (NZ) 54 1 4h Montjeu (Ire)-Prized Gem, by Prized (USA) Murray and Bjorn Baker/Jeff Lloyd. If he’d have been in a yearling sale, Demi O’Byrne would have bought him for a store jumper. But he’s a home-bred out of a mare who won both a Kelt and a Brisbane Cup. Noble Bijou and Mellay are mixed up in the genes. Proven class act. From his barrier position there has to be a rough hope Jeff Lloyd won’t cover too much ground and with the length of the Flemington straight won’t arrive too late. I think he’s an international-class stayer with a great chance. (pictured above)

YELLOWSTONE (Ire) 54 12 5h Rock Of Gibraltar (Ire)-Love And Affection, by Exclusive Era Jane Chapple-Hyam/John Egan. Someone should tell Jane that Daddy’s born-to-rule party aren’t in power any more and to stop being so bossy. Has won only three races from 19, and has always been distanced when in G1 company. No one in Australia would back a Rock to win a Melbourne Cup. Hasn’t raced since 13 September when 54 lengths second last behind Septimus. How can you fall into it? Would make Rebel Raider look like a favourite. Out of a three-quarter sister to high class G1 miler Zoman who proved infertile at stud. SCRATCHED

ZIPPING 54 16 7g Danehill (USA)-Social Scene (Ire), by Grand Lodge (USA) John Sadler/Danny Nikolic. Had four lead-up runs last year before his good fourth placing in the Cup, only three this year. Had seven lead-ups in 2006 when also fourth. So you can see they are fine-tuning the formula. Has been racing very well. Was $1.90 when he won his first start in a Gold Coast 2YO maiden on 31 July 2004. Will go back looking for economical run, he and stablemate C’est La Guerre may make their runs together. Live hope.

MAD RUSH (USA) 53.5 4 5h Lemon Drop Kid-Revonda, by Sadler’s Wells Luca Cumani/Damien Oliver. Has raced only nine times. His Caulfield Cup finish was in keeping with his name. In his only race beyond 2400m he was beaten a short neck at Longchamp. Owner Earle Mack is a highly distinguished gentleman with a long and successful history in thoroughbreds and real estate. USA Ambassador to Finland in 2004, Chairman of the New York State Racing Commission for seven years. Mad Rush’s sire is a relation of A P Indy and his family doesn’t have a rich stamina heritage but it’s hard to poke a hole in his form. One thing’s for sure – D Oliver has so many holidays ahead of him you know he’ll be trying.

ICE CHARIOT 53 22 6g Semipalatinsk (USA)-Snow Chariot, by Chariot Ron Maund/Michael Rodd. Has not run a bad race all season and is seasoned with four starts in the last month. Finished 22nd in the 2006 Melbourne Cup and looking at his record overall I wonder if he the class to win a race like this. He has won $1.1 million without beating anything of quality. How did I make him my roughie in the Caulfield Cup? Will get back but Hot Rodd has a secret Flemington map which could help him at the finish.

VIEWED 53 9 5h Scenic (Ire)-Lover’s Knot (NZ), by Khozaam (USA) Bart Cummings/Blake Shinn. A sentimental favourite because a win would be Bart’s 12th and his 250th G1 victory. No doubt he has been trained for this and nothing else. Undistinguished in good quality company so a leap of faith is required. His sire has never left true stayers but there’s Sir Tristram (Ire) in the pedigree and he comes from the polo-playing family of Battle Heights so there’s some toughness there. I won’t jinx Bart by having my dollar on.

LITTORIO 52.5 17 4g Bellotto (USA)-Our Centasea, by Centaine Nigel Blackiston/Steven King. Has done nothing wrong and Saturday’s run of race didn’t suit him so forget it. But is he just a one-dimensional plodder? It looks a bit that way, and/or his style of racing can get him into a lot of trouble in races. There are 23 others to get around here. Not entitled on breeding to be a stayer. Two wins from 16, he’s going to have to pull finger soon to avoid the “gonna” tag.

BAUER (Ire) 52 13 6h Halling-Dali’s Grey, by Linamix Luca Cumani/Corey Brown. Winning form is good form; in Australian debut beat Moatize at Geelong and he went on to win the Saab. The Europeans don’t rate him as highly as some of the others which is understandable looking at his background. Stamina aplenty in his pedigree and all his wins have been in the 2000m – 2800m range. His sire was a late-blooming crack by the same sire as All The Good. Can take a reasonably prominent position in running and likely to be well served for jockeyship. Could be a player.

BOUNDLESS (NZ) 52 20 4m Van Nistelrooy (USA)-Nothing Less, by Star Way (GB) Stephen McKee/Greg Childs. I gave her a big hope in the Caulfield Cup but she didn’t really kick on. Flemington will definitely suit her better but the spectre of G Childs and 20 at the barrier haunts me. Bred to go five miles on the dam’s side but Van Nistelrooy?? That's a stretch. Wouldn’t surprise me altogether if she was in the firing line somewhere down the straight.

GALLOPIN (NZ) 52 21 5g Pins-Carla Rossi, by Spectacular Love (USA) Danny O’Brien/James Winks. Defies his pedigree and appears to stay well. Looking for sources of stamina, the sire of his fifth dam sired a Melbourne Cup winner and the sire of his grandam had an Auckland Cup winner. Otherwise it’s a dead-set blue collar background – this may be the best horse in the family for 60 years. Won the Moonee Valley Cup last start and prior to that raced without luck, but I can’t see that he’s ever beaten a good horse.

GUYNO (NZ) 52 8 5g O’Reilly (NZ)-River Century, by Centaine Lou Luciani/Craig Newitt. Hasn’t been far away in four starts in Melbourne but these have been second tier races. Last won 12 months ago, consistent meantime. His half-sister Legs won the Kelt and NZ Oaks. He was bought originally after his owners met the breeder in a dress shop. I reckon they’ve secretly come to Melbourne for a shopping spree again. I’m looking hard but I can’t find him; the others would have to have a collective off day.

ZARITA (NZ) 52 7 4m Pentire (GB)-Gin Player, by Defensive Play (USA) SCRATCHED

NEWPORT 51.5 15 6g Encosta de Lago-Sibelienne (GB), by Nishapour Paul Perry/Chris Symons. Just the sort of grinder who occasionally gets in the frame in a Melbourne Cup at cricket score odds. Three wins at 2400m including the Metropolitan and Brisbane Cups (erstwhile prestigious races) in which he carried 52 kgs each time – close to his weight here which might be significant. Has an Olde Worlde French staying pedigree. Encosta has done most things except sire a 3200m winner on the flat – 3000m is as close as he’s got.

PROFOUND BEAUTY (Ire) 51.5 2 5m Danehill (USA)-Diamond Trim, by Highest Honor Dermot Weld/Glen Boss. Oh my god, that combination! This horse could be the silent assassin, puts a chill of fear up your spine. Comes terribly well connected, owned by the famous Moyglare Stud of Swiss-born Walter Haefner who, if he is still alive and I think he is, is 98 years old, certainly the worlds’s oldest billionaire and in the top 200 on the planet. Has only one black-type success in 10 starts but has been all around it. Out here we don’t usually think of Danehill mares winning 3200m races but who are we to question Mr Weld? Past running pattern suggests she’s a forward-going mare so from the draw Bossy might just put her to sleep then pounce. She hasn’t raced for 11 weeks but as Mr Weld has demonstrated previously, so what? Has Sadler’s Wells, Fappiano and Graustark on her female line.

RED LORD 51.5 14 5g Redoute’s Choice-Dame Cath, by Zabeel (NZ) Anthony Cummings/Nicholas Hall. In the old days they said you had to have miles in your legs for the Melbourne Cup. Red Lord has 13,700 race metres in his, most of them run to good effect. Did finish 5th in a Sydney Cup and has won at 2800m, the extremes for a Redoute’s. Bred on the same cross as Fast ‘n’ Famous who loved 1200m – funny thing, breeding. For him, he is carrying a postage stamp weight and this just might keep him in the hunt. One to throw in your First Four multiples.

VAREVEES (GB) 51.5 23 6m Kahyasi-Danse Bretonne, by Exit To Nowhere Richard Gibson/Craig Williams. Marathon runner, triple stakeswinner. Shortest distance ever attempted is 1800m as a two-year-old! Has only raced three times in 2008 and best finish was 6th of eight. Usually races forward so from 23 at the gate C Williams will be on his bike. Is Melbourne-owned so connections are going to have a great day out. Will be an extraordinary training feat if she gets up.

PRIZE LADY (NZ) 51 18 7m Prized (USA)-Pen Bal Lady (GB), by Mummy’s Game Graeme Sanders/Mark Sweeney. Has only won four races but two of them have been the last two G1 Auckland Cups (not the race it once was) over 3200m on affected going. Also 2nd in NZ Oaks and 4th in Queensland Oaks, so a true stayer. Normally takes a handy position in these long races. Has had three lead-up runs with midfield finishes, how can one assess her? Dam was a triple G1 winner in USA but had a horrific produce record at stud. Jockey Mark Sweeney is the trainer’s son-in-law so he’ll be under strict instructions. He was a top grade apprentice a decade ago. It is four years since this mare carried a weight this light.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) 50.5 11 4h Montjeu (Ire)-Ventura Highway, by Machiavellian Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan. Another from the vast O’Brien/Magnier/Tabor/Smith reservoir. Two wins in nine starts including the Lingfield Derby Trial where he led and beat four others. Sixth in the English Derby to New Approach and 4th in an average Irish Derby (led) so not a complete mug. Has never carried less than 56 kgs so he won’t even know he's got a saddle on which will allow him to roll forward, to absolutely no one’s surprise. All form on a sound surface, bred to do the business.

BARBARICUS 50.5 3 4g Lion Hunter-Light Of Erin, by Palace Music (USA) Danny O’Brien/Stephen Baster. The revelation of the last month. He will possie up and go to sleep in the trail. The first four in the running will probably be trained by an O’Brien! I guarantee they’re related (if you’ve been watching TV and listening to the ABC, it’s less than six degrees). Lots of stamina on his dam’s side and this is what he is racing to. How can you knock him on his recent form? He’s going to look a winning chance in the straight.

MOATIZE 50 19 4g Danehill Dancer (Ire)-Shezabeel (NZ), by Zabeel (NZ) Bart Cummings/Clare Lindop. The latest last-minute rabbit to sneak out of Bart’s hat. A big thrill for Cummings-aligned syndicator Veronica King to have a Cup runner. Her partner and co-owner Michael O’Keefe is executive chairman of Riversdale Mining, an ASX listed company with coal leases in Moatize, a region in Mozambique whence the horse takes it name. Mining for gold here. Amongst his 778 individual winners, Danehill Dancer has had a handful win at extreme distances. At black-type level the furthest is the 2600m G3 won by Danebar in Adelaide. Moatize shares with Anna Pavlova and Arapaho Miss success over 2500m, then it’s Lorne Dancer and Ice Queen at 2400m. But none of those has the Zabeel turbo boost. If Bart and Clare win they’ll raise the roof