Managing Your Own Luck

Successful people always insist that you make your own luck, and they’re probably right.

If your punting career has been structured around backing horses for a place – that’s any of the first three, for my American readers – and you become the world champion of fourth placegetters in photo-finishes, you’re entitled to think perhaps you weren’t born lucky.

I’ve always thought I wasn’t born lucky. Lucky to be born, yes, but not born lucky.

This depressing train of thought was only reinforced today when two of my recent sales selections Ortensia (3f Testa Rossa-Aerate’s Pick, by Picknicker) and Absolut Glam (4m Snowland-Pine Away, by Pine Bluff) were the biggest certainties beaten all day in Australia: photo-finish seconds, after horror runs, in G3 and G1 races at Moonee Valley. Naturally, the owners of said horses have more reason to feel aggrieved than I do, but when you only buy/select a handful each year, and usually on very limited budgets, as the intellectual resource behind such decisions you tend to regard the horses as your own, taking it personally however they perform. I sincerely hope both horses stay on their feet and get their just desserts during the spring to help make me famous.

I don’t know how good Ortensia is but her performance was extraordinary. Her managing owner rang me after the race and I couldn’t believe his equilibrium in the circumstances; he is happy to have a Group-placed filly after just four starts for what was a modest outlay. Every horse has a story and the story behind her purchase might interest you. I have to thank the late Dr Gerry Rose. I had decided to have a crack at a particular filly at the Inglis Classic Sale for my client. Bidding away, we had already outstripped the budget when I put my hand up at $62,500, only to be topped off with a $65,000 bid. I daren't go any further so had to let the filly go. I was very surprised to see Gerry sign the docket, he was someone I usually associated with Magic Millions sales, not lesser sales at Inglis, but was interested nonetheless because Gerry was a great judge. That filly turned out to be Estancia Rios (Hussonet-Eleanor’s Pride, by Barathea) which ran third at Rosehill on Saturday. Because I’d missed her I had to continue searching at the subsequent Melbourne Premier Sale where I managed to get Ortensia, on budget.

The person for whom Absolut Glam was originally purchased but who doesn’t race her owing to circumstances which I won’t go into here, also rang after her race. She has been backing the mare all through her career and even though some of the collects have been lucrative she is a long, long way behind, and drifting badly.

For my part on Saturday, I went to Royal Kembla where a horse I manage was performing. He ran well, perhaps the best race of his life, but the jockey set him a ridiculous task. You know you weren’t born lucky when (a) your horse is ridden like that, and (b) your horse finishes fifth – they only pay prizemoney down to fourth at Kembla.

Last time I was at Kembla, in August, I saw Takeover Target’s half-brother Predatory Pricer (3c Street Cry-Shady Stream, by Archregent) win his maiden and couldn’t help but be impressed by what a decent cut of a horse he is. Two starts later he has bridged the gap to stakes company, winning the Ming Dynasty Quality at Rosehill.

At Kembla, Gai was on fire – the course announcer said, accurately, she’s always on fire! – with a double including first-up-for-15-months Ditas (4m Don Eduardo-Zembu, by Fuji Kiseki), another Gooree Park Stud homebred. I’ve mentioned this before, but this outfit’s strike rate of breeding worthwhile horses over the last decade is mind-boggling and definitely not achieved simply by putting the best to the best and hoping for the best. Their Dreamscape (3c Choisir-Faith In Dreams, by Ferdinand) did a Magellan act in the Ming Dynasty and should have won (gave Predatory Pricer 4.5 kgs); meantime a horse they sold as a yearling (they are now selling a handful each year) won a G1 at Moonee Valley: Typhoon Zed (Zeditave-Royal Diploma, by Honor Grades). Gooree manager Andrew Baddock obviously had confidence in Typhoon Zed’s future, he got me to buy its then 2YO half-sister by Fusaichi Pegasus at the Gold Coast in June for what seems now a very reasonable $45,000. Typhoon Zed’s fourth dam is a mare named Somethingroyal. I have to say I am in awe of what Gooree have done this decade: ‘Danding’ Cojuangco might be a very rich man but that in itself guarantees nothing (come on down Wadham Park). If anyone thinks it is easy to breed good horses consistently then I invite them to have a go. It’s not. As well as that, Gooree have a great system of rearing, developing and managing their horses and working in concert with their trainers, primarily Gai these days. Hard to think of anyone doing it better.

While on the subject of awe, did you see Tuesday Joy (5m Carnegie-Joie Denise, by Danehill) win at Moonee Valley? She may not be Sunline or Makybe Diva and may have won only five of her 20 starts, but they have been five of the right ones. Such a regal mare, a distillation of what class pedigree stands for, she’s a legend. If I had the pick of all the mares in Australia ….. I would love to see Patinack, Deborah Ho, Sheikh Mo, Coolmore and any other billionaires you care to mention have a scrap in the sale ring trying to buy her. It will never happen: in Tuesday Joy, Singo has at last found his perfect partner and they will never divorce.

Mention of Singo allows me to tell a tale of how the G2 Theo Marks winner Hurried Choice (by Choisir) came to be. Her dam is an unraced mare, Hustle Bustle, by Catrail, bred by Arrowfield. Arrowfield sold her as a weanling for $17,000 to Tarcoola Park who reoffered her as a Classic Sale yearling, Gai giving $130,000 for her – a nice twist. Gai specked her thinking it would be not too difficult to sell her on as at the time she trained the very good half-sister Miss Bussell. But the Catrail poison was putting everyone off. Around this time, Singo had bought a filly by Danehill out of Cult Figure which he wanted to name Gai, as only he would. Out of courtesy, he asked Gai’s permission. Bad move. Not one to let a chance go by, Gai said OK, but there was a price – he had to buy the Catrail filly to get her goodwill and consent. Big-hearted Singo came to the party. Unfortunately, Hustle Bustle sustained a serious injury not long after and couldn’t get to the races (while the filly Gai was proving a disappointment). Singo probably couldn’t bear to look at Hustle Bustle by this time as she represented a double disaster, so he banged a service to Choisir inside her, took her to his Magic Millions winter sale and got shot of her for $110,000. The buyer? None other than Arrowfield who had let her go for $17,000 as a weanling. So Arrowfield get the credit as the breeder of Hurried Choice, benefiting from Singo’s genius. It’s all a matter of timing. After selling Hustle Bustle’s first three foals for a total $800,000 – not bad work if you can get it – Arrowfield put Hustle Bustle through the Magic Millions ring as a supplementary entry last June, in foal to Hussonet, with a $600,000 valuation but on the day there were no takers.

Hartmann (USA) (5g El Corredor-Fearless Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat) was one of a number of horses-in-training Chris Waller bought at the Tattersalls sale in England last October. No world-beater, Hartmann is nevertheless giving his new Aussie owners lots of pleasure and has put more than $40,000 in the bank already in only his first proper preparation. He cost just 3,500 guineas – about half the airfare to get him to Sydney. I wonder if Chris bought him by mistake?

Guillotine (4h Montjeu-Refused The Dance, by Defensive Play) showed great potential as a Sydney youngster for one of his breed but always figured to improve with maturity. Whatever he’s getting for breakfast since shifting to South Australia/Victoria is certainly agreeing with him. Midway through the 1600m G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley you could have loaded the entire sub-prime mortgage shortfall onto him, he was traveling that well. But I can’t help being impressed also by Maldivian (6g Zabeel-Shynzi, by Danzig). I’m aware he was only fourth as an odds-on favourite but he has raced with plenty of vim and vigour. Fact remains that at distances of 2000m and further, Big Mal has raced five times, winning four and being defeated a half-neck in the other. I wish, at the start of his siring career, I had thought of the betting system of backing every Zabeel in every race of 2000m and longer … a licence to print money. But I wasn’t that clever or born that lucky. Zabeel himself raced five times at 2000m or further and only won once, and even then by a mere half a head.

A fair effort by Capecover (6g Cape Cross-Set Up, by Zabeel) to land the Listed Tokyo City Cup in Adelaide having last raced in NZ just 2 weeks ago. This NZ G3 winner stays well; he has a magnificent pedigree with a heavy stamina emphasis, though a branch of the family produced the sprinter-milers Scintillation and Shania Dane – but they were by Danehill who broke all the rules. Capecover is trained by one Alexander Fieldes, a horseman who won’t be well known in Australia. Alexander did a stint in the racing media in the 80s and 90s, mostly TV/race calling, and he was, ahem, colourful. In an industry renowned for its conservatism and backside licking, I recall Alexander as a cross between Murray Bell, Richard Callander and John Clarke – opinions, with colour and humour. It's a hazy memory now but I think they had to get him off, he was too close to the bone. We all mellow with age; I look forward to seeing an interview with him.

P.S. They're keeping tabs on me in The Gulf. An analysis of where my blog's hits come from shows my second largest readership, after Australia, is in the United Arab Emirates! I imagine they're compiling a dossier on me. And I did the decent thing. I flew Emirates to NZ last week. Seriously, would you go any other way?