Off to Heron Island

The blog is suspended. For the next fortnight. I'm going on holiday which will take me to such exotic places as Melbourne and Heron Island. For four days I'm not even going to be able to turn on a computer - fantastic! I expect to be hitting the road looking at yearlings when I get back (why I don't know, no one's asked me to) so whether I resume the blog or not is in the lap of the gods. I might start talking to real people instead of myself. That would make a change.

I Forgot To Take The All-Upper

Horses I sell to Far North Queensland love the air up there.

At the Atherton meeting yesterday, their local, the three starters which I sold to Tom Hedley all won: Gaelic Lad (6g O'Reilly (NZ)-Swanette, by Danzero), his eighth win for Tom in 12 starts; In Absentia (5m Diatribe-Bolted (NZ), by Pentire (GB)), her fifth win in eight, and Vacillator (5m Diatribe-Bobbin Head (NZ), by Senor Pete (USA)), her fourth win in eight.

They're not racing for a fortune, but the bookies do operate!

Tom's trainer Roy Chillemi might have the best strike rate in Australia. Maybe even better than Gai's. It must be a bad situation fluking a really good horse up there. Placing them would have to be a fine art.

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The winner of Saturday's G2 New Zealand Cup, 3200m, at Riccarton Park, Hoorang, is unlikely to shake the living daylights out of next year's Melbourne Cup but as one of the few brave enough to run this journey these days she deserves her moment of fame. She clocked a pretty respectable 3:18.11 for the journey - not bad for a supposed mudder - compared with Viewed's Melbourne Cup which, for all the vaunted firmness of the track and breakneck Irish tactics, took 3:20.40.

She has no Sir Tristram (Ire) or Zabeel (NZ) in her pedigree but carries the next best thing, Mill Reef through the male line of Shirley Heights, Darshaan and Zerpour (Ire). The Aga Khan's Zerpour, a descendant of Petite Etoile, averaged just over 22 live foals per year in his seven NZ seasons from which he's had five stakeswinners including the hard-knocking Victorian Light Vision, winner of 10 and fifth in Saturday's G2 Sandown Classic.

Hoorang's pedigree is a large reservoir of stamina. Her unraced dam is by Rhythm (USA), the good USA Mr Prospector two-year-old who turned out more an influence for stamina during his largely forgettable southern hemisphere career. Her grandam is the G1 Queensland Oaks winner Triumphal Queen (NZ) by the temperamental Ribot-line horse Triumphal March (USA) who won a G2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2800m. Then the next dams are by champion sires Agricola (GB) and Faux Tirage (GB) until you come to the fifth dam Sunbride (GB), an epochal NZ import in the '40s whose descendants dominated classic and Cup racing in the late '50s and '60s. Her own foals included Melbourne and Sydney Cup winner Straight Draw, Caulfield Cup winner Ilumquh and Sydney Cup winner General Command. Brilliant performers like Dayana, Grand Cidium and Terrific were the next generation. Unquestionably, Hoorang is what she was bred to be.

The only Sir Tristram/Zabeel to be found in the result is per medium of third placed Vickezzchardonnay who is a daughter of Don Eduardo (NZ) whose sprinter-looking son Swift Alliance made it two from two at Rosehill on Saturday.

Sanbetdownfair Park

Any truth in the rumour that the executives at Doomben have been burning the phone lines trying to flog Betfair some cheap naming rights to a racetrack?

I gagged on my muesli when I read about the‘re-naming’ of Sandown; had to reach for another big dollop of Greek-style yoghurt to make sure it slid down safely.

Composing myself, I came to realise it’s only a sponsorship, it’s not as if they’re going to tow the place out to sea. After about three years people will say “Betfair Park” although they will still think “Sandown” – the same mental process as translating into another language. Betfair obviously have good data which tells them such a spend will be rewarded by increased market share.

How are the form guides going to show it: BETPH for Hillside and BETPL for Lakeside? Or will they ignore it and stick to SANH and SANL? And Melways?

Think: when the proletariat overthrow the Germanic-Hellenic mob who live at the end of The Mall, naming rights will be up for grabs at Randwick, too. Crazy John's Randwick.

I wonder how The Family is going in the Global Financial Crisis? Any palaces up for grabs?

A Time Of Opportunity

If you’ve got cash and are not in debt up to your eyeballs, the next couple of years are going to be good years to be buying yearlings and breeding stock.

There will be bargains out there.

Those of us old enough to remember what happened 20 years ago, when the last serious worldwide financial tidal wave occurred, see it happening all over again. This time, it looks like a full scale tsunami.

Though it took a couple of years to feed through, bloodstock prices in Australasia plummeted between 40 - 60%. Breeders who had been breeding at a high cost of production – big service fees in particular – took a pummeling when a shrinking buyers’ market eschewed over-matings. Weakly structured stud businesses went down the gurgler.

If you’re relatively new to this business you might think this is a fairytale. It’s not. The horse business, which relies on players at all levels not just the most wealthy, is very sensitive to the wider economy. It might take an extra year before the full impact is felt here, but felt it will be. Some studmasters who have been gouging breeders with service fees in the last few seasons will be begging for your custom (even though invariably they will oppose you in the yearling market). If you can still be bothered, that is. Not that they will lose much in having to chop their fees – many of their stallions have been mind-bogglingly profitable throughout their stud lives.

It was interesting to read in other media comments attributed to Garry Chittick, owner of Waikato Stud, probably NZ’s top performing stud this decade. He says he’s down 150 bookings on last year. It can’t be because his stallions are either over-priced, duds or unappealing in the NZ context – O’Reilly, Pins, Savabeel, No Excuse Needed, Fast ‘n’ Famous, Scaredee Cat. Though he speaks from a position of strength, he’s never been frightened to call a spade a bloody spade. In this game of smoke and mirrors and PR spin, few would have the balls to flesh out their argument publicly with “commercially sensitive” hard numbers, so Garry has shown leadership in drawing attention in this way to the malaise which is occurring.

The world’s biggest breeding stock sale, Keeneland November in Lexington, completed its eighth session on Tuesday, which means 60% of the catalogue has been offered. The gross is down 46.5%, the average down 36.9% and the median down 33.3%. There have been 284 fewer horses sold than at the same stage last year. Buyers are keen on the weanlings and are walking away from mares, especially those whose commercial prospects are questionable. Consignors have been withdrawing their entries in significant numbers to save themselves the bother/cost of having to buy them back in, unwilling to let such a weak market value them (what is their value other than what the market will pay for them on any given day?). It must be a frustrating sale to attend.

To get things in slightly better perspective, it was unquestionably a higher quality catalogue last year, so some of the deficit is due to that. The less attractive offering may well be due to owners of high-end fillies and mares deciding they did not want to have their horses valued on a declining market so they refrained from entering them. Last year, the Australian dollar was riding around 90 cents US, as against around 67 cents US this year. ANZ buyers, of whom I was one, bought about 25 mares; this year, up to Session 8, I’ve identified six in the names of ANZ buyers including Dean Fleming’s US$1.3 million Diamond Necklace, though perhaps there's more under other guises. Leaving her to one side, because Fleming is a northern hemisphere player, the other five have ranged from US$25,000 to US$270,000. Even with the dollar the way it is and the extra costs of shipment, individually they look value. With catalogue quality dropping away progressively, I don’t expect much more participation from ANZ interests.

The market will “correct” globally for some time yet. The well-situated breeder with long term aspirations who is prepared to do, or have done for him, the required homework, has a period of considerable opportunity opening up to him.

Incidentally, I love the term “correction” as it applies to price levels. Corrections only happen in hindsight. Which sellers were objecting, at the time, that the prices were ridiculously high in the first place?

More Than One Maldivian

There might be more than one Maldivian in Australia before too long.

Reported today, the Republic of The Maldives has created a fund with which to purchase "a new homeland" in a foreign country for the relocation of its people in the event that rising water levels, as a result of climate change, submerge all or most of the archipelago. It is made up of 1,192 coral islets of which 193 are inhabited by about 300,000 people.

India and Sri Lanka are mentioned as possibilities, favoured because of cultural and climatic similarities, with the vast, empty, warm land of Australia next on the list.

The Maldives is the lowest-lying country above sea level on the planet with a maximum natural ground level of only 2.3 metres.

Have we seen the future?

Remember The Heavy 10 In The Middle Of July

So what do you think of the VRC again treating the punters like second-class citizens throughout the Melbourne Cup carnival?

I’m referring of course to the exclusive live race telecast rights granted to and paid for by Channel 7.

Here we have the punters and addicts who watch the dedicated racing channels Sky and TVN, day in and day out, all year long, having to flick to Channel 7 if they want to see the race live or sit through the indignity of a call without vision waiting for delayed coverage. It’s a slap in the face for the people who fuel racing’s engine room 363 days a year.

TABCORP, which relies on profit from wagering and gaming, owns Sky. The VRC is part-owner of TVN, at much expense to the racing industry. Ironically, it contrives to deprive even its own flesh and blood of live broadcasts in the biggest week of the year.

Let me emphasise, it is wonderful that this magnificent racing festival is available free-to-air. It serves racing very well in that the coverage reaches, potentially, everyone, especially those who do not subscribe to pay-TV. Channel 7 presumably pays millions for these rights so I imagine they drive a hard bargain in nailing down the terms. But what's being gained by disenfranchising Sky and TVN pay-TV viewers?

Channel 7 aims to maximize its audience by inducing people to watch. Fair enough. It sells a suite of expensive advertising around the whole week, aimed right across the consumer base. It can claim to its advertisers, rightly, that it’s the only medium where the races can be seen live, except on-course, and it achieves ratings, especially on Cup Day itself, which justify the advertising rates.

Then there are the Sky and TVN viewers. I suppose some are happy to watch wall-to-wall Channel 7 on these four days, concentrating on just the one meeting, and do make the switch. Not too many I'm picking.

What’s left are we addicts who don’t give a rat’s what Simon Marshall’s kid is wearing to the races or which Channel 7 ‘celebrities’ or other products of indulgent parents are fart-arseing around in the marquees.

In our homes and in the pubs and clubs, we stay stuck to our Sky or TVN, two channels which between them, by the way, can barely sell a non-industry advertisement, such is the narrowness of their viewer base. We do anything to avoid the non-core fare served up on Channel 7 because, for the most part, we find it nauseating. At the death, as the last horses are loaded into the gates, we flick over to Channel 7 to watch the race live. As soon as John Letts has done his bit with the winning jockey we flick back again, hoping to get some insightful analysis from our trusted presenters.

Therefore, we haven’t seen a single Channel 7 advert or piece of self-promotion. Deliberately and happily. There’s not many of us anyway. If there were, Sky and TVN would be able to convince more of the commercial world to buy advertising space. We statistically insignificant people are the ones the VRC and Channel 7 punish for our intransigence. If we are statistically insignificant, what difference would it make if we were allowed to see the races live on the racing channels? It would hardly send Channel 7 out of business. Sky and TVN aren't Nine or Ten.

Melbourne Cup week is one of the world’s premier sporting occasions. It reaches deep into the social fabric of the Australasian community and enjoys an ever-expanding international awareness (witness the lead items on several overseas sports news services, for example).

The proprietors of this festival hold the whip hand. Possibly outside the Olympics once every four years, there’s not another sporting product to rival it. They ought to be doing that little bit better for the loyal customers who are still with them when it’s a Heavy 10 in the middle of July.

An American's Take On The Cup

American racing journalist Dick Powell attended this year's Melbourne Cup. Here's his account, reprinted from Bloodstock Journal on Brisnet of 8 November.

By Dick Powell

In 148 years of running there has never been a dead heat for win in the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1). On Tuesday, we almost had one but enough history was made to more than make up for it.

On a sunny, cool, windswept day, Bart Cummings won his record 12th Melbourne Cup and 250th Group 1 stakes when longshot VIEWED (Scenic [Ire]) held on by a desperate nose under a fantastic ride by 21-year-old Blake Shinn. Denied glory was European invader BAUER (Halling) who had every shot to go by in the final yards, looked like he did when his rider Corey Brown was ahead of Shinn at the wire, and then saw the result of the photo with Viewed holding on by what should be termed "anything closer would be a dead heat."

After the race, Brown was inconsolable. It's one thing to run second -- it's another to think that you have won and then find that you didn't. For trainer Luca Cumani, it was the second year in a row that one of his charges suffered a heartbreaking defeat. Last year, PURPLE MOON (Galileo [Ire]) had a clear lead in the stretch before being run down by EFFICIENT (Zabeel) in the final yards. This year, Cumani's Bauer was making up ground with every stride before falling a nose short. It was a cruel day for many but not for the man they call the "Cups King."

It's good to be the King and Cummings is all of that. Despite the presence of eight European invaders the Cup stayed in Australia even though many Melbourne newspapers were predicting that the home team might not ever win again.

Two years ago, Aidan O'Brien brought champion stayer YEATS (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) to the Melbourne Cup and he failed miserably. Last year, O'Brien brought SCORPION (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]), who was scratched because of a career-ending injury, and MAHLER (Galileo [Ire]), who ran a good third while disputing the pace. The Melbourne Cup is a two-mile handicap and a great horse will have to not only carry high weight but concede to very capable distance specialists. It takes the right kind of horse to win the Melbourne Cup and O'Brien thought he had him with SEPTIMUS (Sadler's Wells) who won the Irish St. Leger (Ire-G1) by 13 lengths in his last start.

The Melbourne Cup is usually run with a strong pace out of the gate and down the home straightaway the first time. When the horses settle into position as they go around the first turn, the pace usually slows to a crawl and it's then a matter of biding time until the last three furlongs. The wide, sweeping nature of the second turn enables the horses running behind to get clear sailing and it's a mad scramble to the wire. O'Brien did not feel that this kind of pace scenario would suit Septimus and he brought along HONOLULU (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) and ALESSANDRO VOLTA (Montjeu [Ire]) to insure that the pace would be strong and even throughout.

All week O'Brien made no secret of what his tactics would be and when the gate opened and the field of 22 was sent on its way, everything went according to plan. However, all week O'Brien publicly worried about the condition of the turf and made it clear that his runners would not like it too firm as Flemington Racecourse had been. Southern Australia has been in a long-term drought and the turf courses have been very firm. Even with overnight watering, the course would start out with some give and then firm up as the sun and wind dried it out.

On Tuesday, the course started out rated as "Dead Four" which for comparison purposes would be between good to firm in America. During the day it was then changed to a much firmer "Good Three." Co-owners Derrick Smith and Tom Magnier made no secret of the fact that if the course were not watered enough and it played like it did on Saturday they would scratch Septimus. When the course rating was changed they had the opportunity to scratch any or all of their three entrants but they, along with O'Brien, decided to give it a shot.

As the field settled itself out and they went around the first turn, Johnny Murtagh had Septimus prominently placed and Wayne Lordan took over the lead aboard Alessandro Volta with Honolulu right off their flank. At the point of the race where the Melbourne Cup usually slows to a crawl, the O'Brien-trained trio separated themselves from the rest of the field and covered the first 1,600 meters (just under a mile) in 1:40.8.

At this point it looked like the O'Brien tactics were working like a charm but they continued on a relentless pace with no letup. They were going to take the late kick out of the closers by forcing them to use too much energy to keep up. Unfortunately, the rest of the field pretty much ignored them and ran the way they were most comfortable.

With more than a half-mile to go, the two pacemakers not only tired but dropped back suddenly leaving Septimus completely exposed. The field was catching up and at the top of the stretch they began to swoop by with Septimus offering little resistance as his stride shortened noticeably.

The first to strike was Viewed and for a while it looked like Shinn had attacked too soon. But what made Shinn's move so successful was that he did not hesitate for a moment. He didn't want the lead more than a quarter-mile from the wire but when the front runners stopped he seized the moment and the Cup itself. Viewed, one of two entrants trained by Cummings, opened a clear lead with a furlong to go and the only real threat was coming from Bauer.

Unlike O'Brien, Cumani has prepped his Melbourne Cup starters with a race in Australia. This year, he ran Mad Rush (Lemon Drop Kid) in the Caulfield Cup (Aus-G1) where he was a tough-trip fourth and Bauer in the Geelong Cup (Aus-G3) which he won. O'Brien has chosen to ship in later, go through quarantine and train them for the race off a layoff.

In America, we define a layoff of at least a month but many of Tuesday's starters not only raced in the Caulfield Cup on October 18 but some competed in the Cox Plate (Aus-G1) on October 25 and/or the Mackinnon Stakes (Aus-G1) which was run on Saturday. Some also ran on Saturday in the Saab Quality S. (Aus-G3) with only a three-day rest before a two-mile handicap.

Mad Rush was the more fancied of the Cumani pair but it was Bauer that was making the mad rush to the finish. It fell a nose short and Bart Cummings had a dozen Melbourne Cups in his possession. Immediately after the race, there was talk of a baker's dozen for Bart since Viewed is only five years old and he has MOATIZE (Danehill Dancer), who won the Saab Quality and finished sixth in the Melbourne Cup, and DANDAAD (Istidaad) who won the Long Black Handicap at 2,800 meters earlier on the card.

For Shinn it was vindication and reward for an aggressive move that looked premature but turned out to be prescient. Had he been caught, he would have had to live with being known as the rider that blew Bart's 12th Melbourne Cup by moving too soon. Instead, he won the photo and gets Melbourne Cup win number one out of the way.

As exciting as Melbourne Cup 148 was, the fireworks were just beginning. The stewards called in the riders from the O'Brien team after the race and questioned their tactics. Considering that Septimus finished 18th, Alessandro Volta finished 20th and Honolulu finished 21st, this seemed to be unnecessary but Australia does have a rule that each horse has to be ridden in a way that ensures the best possible place in the field. Obviously, a rabbit is in the race to ensure the best possible place of his stablemate but O'Brien had said all along that this was how these three horses run.

Both Septimus and Honolulu pulled up lame after the race and O'Brien now was second-guessing not only his strategy but even running them in the first place. He said the course was like concrete after being promised that it would be watered sufficiently. But his day was not over.

Ninety minutes after the race was over, O'Brien was summoned back to the track to answer the stewards' questions about riding tactics that the riders had already given them. O'Brien was rightfully upset that he and his riders' integrity were being challenged. The fact that all three went out, set the pace, and tired badly had O'Brien, tongue planted not-so-firmly in cheek, ask the stewards "Do you think we were running our horses for Bart Cummings?" Even chief steward Terry Bailey had to respond, "I wouldn't have thought so."

I can understand the stewards doing their job and enforcing the rules of Australian racing. The betting public needs to be protected and each horse should only be entered and ridden with the best possible placing in mind.

But what about all the horses in the race that showed virtually no recent form and suddenly blossomed when history and big money is on the line? Do the stewards go back and question why Viewed ran dead last in Saturday's Mackinnon? Do they call in Viewed's rider that day, Steve Arnold, and question him about what instructions were given to him with the Melbourne Cup only three days away? What about all the trainers that avoid winning the prep races so as not to pick up a weight penalty? How is the betting public's interest protected when horses are entered in races and there appears to be a lack of effort because bigger races are on the horizon?

Australia has this rule and it's a good one but it is only a good one if it is enforced unilaterally. It was a bad day for O'Brien and it could not have been a happy plane ride back to Ireland for the team. Besides the stewards' inquisition, the Australian media has been brutal on him

One other thing that Cumani and others do is use Australian jockeys in the Melbourne Cup. Cumani had Damien Oliver, who has won two Cups, aboard Mad Rush and Brown aboard Bauer. Dermot Weld, who has won two Melbourne Cups, one with Ireland's Mick Kinane and the other with Oliver, used Glen Boss, winner of three Cups aboard the immortal Makybe Diva, on PROFOUND BEAUTY (Danehill). O'Brien brought his own riders, decided against a prep race and went home with an ignominious ending to a season that at one point looked like he was going to set a record for Group 1 stakes wins.

Beneath O'Brien's placid exterior is a burning passion for success. I have to assume that he and Team Coolmore will regroup and plan another raid down under next year with a vengeance. But, they will have to show some flexibility in selection of horses and tactics. Next year's Cup will be extremely difficult for anyone to win; even Bart Cummings. The Japanese, who ran first and second in 2006, should be over their Equine Influenza issues by then and two miles on firm ground is right up their alley. Cumani will be a force again and Profound Beauty ran a gigantic race to be fifth for Weld. Godolphin had horrible luck when ALL THE GOOD (Diesis [GB]), winner of the Caulfield Cup when Viewed ran 10th, came up injured the week of the race and they will be back next year as well.

There are many things to like about Australian racing. In the track program, every imaginable equipment change is listed. In a section called "Today's Gear Information," details on blinkers, bandages, glue on shoes, bar shoes, cross over nosebands, lugging bit, tongue tie and winkers are listed at the time of entry.

On Saturday's card that was highlighted by the Victoria Derby (Aus-G1), an announcement was made two races in advance that the probable heavy favorite, WHOBEGOTYOU (Street Cry [Ire]), had suffered an injury in shipping to Flemington and had been examined by the attending vets for contusions on one of his forelegs. He passed inspection but no piece of information about the horses is too small to be communicated to the bettors.

Flemington Racecourse is a big, expansive track that handles the six-figure crowds quite well. Saturday's Derby card saw 117,700 attend and while there were long lines to bet it was comfortable. I purchased my seat online like anyone else and due to the luck of going online the day that they went on sale it was right on the finish line in the Hill Stand. I can't imagine having that opportunity in any major American race.

The train system in Flemington is fantastic. They have constant service for their four major race days of the Spring Racing Carnival and most take advantage of it. I walked from my hotel to the Flinders Street Station on the two days of racing that I attended, got aboard with thousands of other racegoers and was at the track in twenty minutes. The train arrived behind the track as close as Union Avenue is to the Saratoga grandstand. Leaving the track was even easier.

Because of the long lines to bet I made most of my plays through the many licensed bookmakers at the track. If you want to make exotic bets you have to get on line and bet with the tote but if you bet win and place -- as most people do -- the bookmakers are a convenient option.

Two factors with betting with bookmakers are worth noting. First, most of the money comes in early. If a big bettor likes a line that is being offered they grab it and do not wait until the last second like tote betting. When I arrived on Tuesday, Septimus was offered at 6-1 odds. Even with the firm ground, I thought that was a very fair price and took it. Second, by post time, he had drifted up to 7-1 meaning that not only could I have gotten better odds had I waited but the money was going elsewhere and there was little confidence in his chances. The favorite wound up being Mad Rush at 9-2 but the horse that dropped the most was Profound Beauty who was quoted at 7.5 to 1 near post time.

We all complain in America about late odds changes but the reality is that many horse's odds go up at the last second as go down. Fixed odds wagering is great and if given the chance I would always use it but there is a downside to it when you are locked into a price that is going the wrong way.

Melbourne is a long way from home and the Albany/Baltimore/Nashville/Los Angeles/Auckland/Melbourne journey is grueling to say the least. But if finances permit it, I'll be back. It was that good.

Steve adds:
NB: regarding on-line booking, I have booked seats on-line for Del Mar long before leaving Australia for the southern Californian meeting (Clubhouse, pictured above)and, depending on what you wanted to pay, the options were excellent. A few years ago, for US$8 a day, I had entry and a reserved seat in the grandstand opposite the winning post for the whole fortnight I was there. The first day I arrived I fronted up at the Will Call window and the tickets were there as booked, waiting for me. No one ever mistakenly sat in my seat, the place was as clean as a whistle, there were no drunken louts abusing me as I left the track and no one vomiting on the train station platform (because there isn't one). One of the most pleasant parts of the experience was to go to the organised trackwork sessions in the morning (around 7.30 a.m.), breakfasting al fresco in the grandstand while noted former jockeys and personalities wander around with a remote microphone giving all the details of the workouts happening in front of you. The weather always seemed good and the prices very reasonable. They are getting out of hand for the average family in Australia. After paying entry and racebooks for a couple of adults on some of these big days, how much do people have left to bet with? Every time you spend a dollar at the windows you are contributing something to help pay for putting on the show. Turnover is the name of the game in racing, that's why gate prices should be cheaper than other forms of entertainment or sport.

Sounds Irish

You have to have a Ph.D. to understand the racename merry-go-round played by the VRC. Swick’s win in the G1 Patinack Farm VRC Classic on Saturday reminded me.

Let me quote from Racing In Australia, published by The Thoroughbred:

“For almost half a century the Salinger Stakes (once known as the Craven A Stakes) has been the premier sprint race down the famous Flemington straight 1200m course during the Melbourne Cup carnival.

“In 2007, the VRC took the major step of not only relocating the Group 1 sprint from Derby Day to Final Day, but also changing the conditions from a handicap to weight-for-age. To add confusion to the mix, the old sponsor Seppelts Salinger preferred to remain part of Derby Day, so the “old The Age Classic (formerly raced on Oaks Day and then Final Day as the Linlithgow Stakes at weight-for-age) was moved to Derby Day and renamed the Group 2 Salinger Stakes (1200m).”

Are you with me?

So Swick (NZ) has done the only logical thing and won both of them. He won the Salinger in 2007 which was a G2 race, not a G1, for the first time that year, even though it really wasn’t the Salinger, it was The Age Classic. He made up for that this year when he won the G1 VRC Classic, even though it really wasn’t the VRC Classic, it was the Salinger.

Are you still with me?

Anyway, the win by the very consistent Swick highlighted a notable day for his sire O’Reilly (NZ) (Last Tycoon (Ire)-Courtza (NZ), by Pompeii Court (USA)). Eight of his 10 runners on the day – two bush results are still to come – provided four winners including one other at Flemington, Vigor (NZ).

Equally significant, his daughters were represented by only two runners in NZ and both won black-type races. Daffodil (by No Excuse Needed (GB)-Spring) took out the G1 NZ Thousand Guineas at Riccarton Park and Tootsie (by Pins-Hyades) won the Listed sprint at Te Rapa. Though he’s only 15 years old, O’Reilly is already the broodmare sire of seven stakeswinners.

Check out the results of the two 2500m stakes races run on Saturday in Australasia. Stand Tall won the G3 Gold Club Metropolitan Trophy at Riccarton Park. He’s by Zabeel (NZ) (out of Grand Archway). Capecover (NZ) won the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington. He’s out of a Zabeel mare.

It’s a disease.

STOP PRESS: one of the two O'Reilly bush results is in and would you believe Sylvan O'Reilly has won the $52,500 Ararat Gold Cup (a bush race?). So that's 5 winners from 9 known runners by the sire. Not bad. Big day also for O'Reilly's owner Garry Chittick: he bred 3 stakeswinners on the day in G1 Daffodil, G1 Swick and LR Tootsie.

Must Mean Something

Of the six richest races of 2000m or further run in Australia and NZ this season to date, Sir Tristram (Ire) features in the pedigrees of the winners of five of them. The Caulfield Cup is the only race he has struck out in.

The winners have been Viewed (Melbourne Cup - sire of the grandam), Maldivian (NZ) (Cox Plate - paternal grandsire via Zabeel), Princess Coup (Kelt Capital Stakes - via broodmare sire Sovereign Red), Rebel Raider (VRC Derby - paternal grandsire via Zabeel and via maternal grandsire Dalmacia) and Samantha Miss (VRC Oaks - via broodmare sire Zabeel).

The closest finisher carrying his blood in the Caulfield Cup was Red Ruler, sixth. Can't figure out what happened there; must have had an off day.

Sam I Am

It’s hard to go past Samantha Miss (3f Redoute’s Choice-Milliyet (NZ), by Zabeel (NZ), pictured) in Thursday’s G1 VRC Oaks, 2500m. She is as dominant a filly in her generation as were recent winners Miss Finland, Serenade Rose and Special Harmony at the same stage in theirs, the only difference being they were all trained in Victoria.

All she’s got to do, and I say all, is prove she’s trained on and prove she can handle 2500m. Flemington should suit her better than Moonee Valley where she briefly got off stride but her closing effort in the G1 W S Cox Plate was meritorious. Her spring preparation has been a model of good timing and she looks as good a stayer as Miss Finland, the fine Redoute’s Choice filly who won this in 2006.

Kimillsy (3f Danehill Dancer (Ire)-Lady Fidelia, by Snippets) should have won Saturday’s G2 Wakeful Stakes quite easily; hers was the best run in the race which is frequently a good guide. A Danehill Dancer filly, Arapaho Miss, won the race last year but as this Cup carnival has illustrated graphically through the success of interstate horses, the class of 2007 in Melbourne left something to be desired. Four of the top chances this year are trained in NSW. The Danehill Dancers which genuinely stay are in the minority though we saw Moatize run a bottler in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Out of a Snippets mare then a Biscay mare, Kimillsy doesn’t appear to have the pedigree for 2500m but she will get a cheap run from gate two and ought to be in the finish though, like every other filly from Sydney, Samantha Miss has always had her measure.

Seven fillies carry the blood of the number one stamina influence, Sir Tristram (Ire). To save you looking them up they are Samantha Miss, Rocha, Oval Affair, Miss Scarlatti (NZ), Tobouggie Woogie, Allez Wonder and Poco Gusto. It's 16 years since the last NZ-bred won this classic, Slight Chance (NZ) in 1992. Miss Scarlatti (NZ) is the only hope this year but if Samantha Miss does the business at least it can be said she was bred by Kiwis!

Bart has won the race eight times and has two engaged, Think Money (3f Danehill Dancer (Ire)-Ponziani (NZ), by Nassipour (USA)) and Allez Wonder (3f Redoute’s Choice-Luna Tudor, by Military Plume (NZ)). Both are maidens, both have the Cummings trademark running style of getting back and getting home, and both are owned, wholly or in part, by Dato Tan Chin Nam. Lee Freedman is a four-time winner with a superbly-bred and in-form pair this year, Miss Scarlatti (NZ) (3f Stravinsky (USA)-Crimson, by Zabeel (NZ)) and Estee (3f Redoute’s Choice-Tycoon Lil, by Last Tycoon (Ire)).

Unlike the VRC Derby, who moans and groans about the VRC Oaks being 2500m and too taxing on the fillies at this time of year? Owners of fillies who are often also breeders will grab any chance to get black type so in they go. In the long run, you don’t run value off a filly for the odd over-ambitious failed attempt. When people look at dams' records in a catalogue they basically take regard of the races shown, not the ones which aren’t, whereas most bad runs are used in evidence against an aspiring young stallion.

How many times do you hear, “She’s a nice mare, she was stakes placed", as against “No stud would have him, he’s only stakes placed.”

I wonder if the Sex Discrimination Commissioner knows about this?

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Bishop's Disease must be catching. Imitation is said to be the sincerest form of flattery, and I suppose I should be grateful somebody reads my blog. A Melbourne Cup story appearing in the breeding section of the nation’s number one racing website bears a more than passing resemblance to my blog, below. Journos are a lazy mob. I know. Thirty years ago I was one.

Single-handedly, Bart Saves The Australian Stayer

This year, perhaps more than for a long time, the Melbourne Cup was a sheer lottery.

Fuelled by growing international involvement, the weeks leading up to the race and the unpredictable contest itself were charged with drama.

Conventional form was hard to spot in the outcome. If you wagered successfully in the Melbourne Cup this year it was most likely on account of your faith rather than because of logical form analysis, on account of impressions formed of horses when they were previously at their peaks and who you trusted would revert to their peaks on the day.

Winner (by a small pimple) Viewed had not filled a place in his preparation. The historical stats will show he finished last in his lead-up race just three days before.

Third placegetter C’est La Guerre (NZ) had not filled a place previously this preparation.

Fourth placegetter Master O’Reilly (NZ) had placed only once from four lead-up starts.

Only runner-up Bauer (Ire) had been meaningfully on the board, via his Geelong Cup victory at his only prior Australian start.

Coincidentally, last year’s winner Efficient (NZ) did not fill a place in any of his four lead-up races. You have to go back a long way to find the next previous example of a winner without a conventional spring form line.

Such is the nature of a 3200m handicap with 22 starters, seven of whom travelled across the globe to run. There are lots of unknowns and lots of possible permutations. The final 800m of these races can be unforgiving.

But the constant in modern Melbourne Cup history has been Bart Cummings. How ironic, given Bart's well-aired views about overseas horses competing in the race, that it should be a JBC horse which deprived yet another import of victory.

Viewed gave him an unbelievable 12th success in the race, by the width of one of Bart’s bushy eyebrow hairs. Nobody now living is likely to see a comparable record put together, and, conceivably, Bart is not finished yet. I see quite a bit of Bart around the traps and he is one sharp 80-year-old! Lee Freedman is 30 years younger than Bart and has five Melbourne Cups in the cupboard so if he lives a long and productive life Lee has a statistical chance – but his stable couldn’t field a starter this year. You need a certain type of owner prepared to go the stayer’s route and in four-time winner Dato Tan Chin Nam Bart has had such an ally for decades.

Here is an amazing fact: in the last 16 years only three Australian-breds have won the Melbourne Cup. Bart has trained all of them. Viewed this year, Rogan Josh in 1999 and Saintly (conceived in NZ but foaled in Australia) in 1996. Of his nine other winners, starting with Light Fingers (NZ) in 1965, eight were NZ-bred and one USA-bred.

Viewed will owe a lot of his stamina to his NZ family heritage and, of course, to Sir Tristram (Ire), sire of his grandam. His fourth dam is the famous polo-playing mare Wuthering Heights (by Avocat General (Ire)). She is also the sixth dam of Weekend Hussler who, perversely, has shown there are clear limits to his stamina. Interestingly, Viewed carries on the bottom side of his pedigree a line of L’Enjoleur, twice Canadian Horse Of The Year, as does G1 Epsom and Mackinnon winner Theseo.

Viewed comes from the 13th crop of now-deceased Scenic (Ire), the first son of Sadler’s Wells at stud in Australia and still easily the best. His crop of 48 foals in 1998-99 is the only one not to contain stakeswinners of which he has had 66 worldwide including 10 Group 1 winners, all in Australia. Scenic drifted in and out of fashion like bell bottom trousers and you were doing well if in any given year you could nominate correctly where he was standing. He finished his time covering at a fee of $16,500 in Western Australia, dying in early 2005 aged 19.

I haven't looked underneath to check, but if the official data is correct, Viewed is the first Australian-bred entire to win a Melbourne Cup since Rain Lover in 1969. It’s said to be the kiss-of-death for a stallion. Judge for yourself: the other entires to win since Rain Lover have been Silver Knight (NZ), Beldale Ball (USA), At Talaq (USA), Tawriffic (NZ), Kingston Rule (USA), Jeune (GB) and Delta Blues (JPN) in 2006. Of those used at stud in Australia, Jeune was given the best opportunity by breeders, averaging 95 mares a year for 10 seasons. At Talaq averaged 60, Kingston Rule 39 and Tawriffic 26 prior to his export to Ireland as a 14-year-old. Silver Knight sired four stakeswinners including, significantly, the 1984 Melbourne Cup winner Black Knight.

Yes, three Australian-bred Melbourne Cup winners in 16 years. And Bart trained them all. And who was the next Australian-bred to finish behind Viewed? Moatize, sixth. Good old Bart trains him, too. Don't ya love him!

Recession? What Recession?

Latest piece of lunacy out of the USA - 12-year-old EMPTY mare Better Than Honour sells for a world record US$14,000,000 at Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November Sale today, to USA buyers Southern Equine Stables who were joint owners of the mare when she went into the ring. The mare, by Deputy Minister-Blush With Pride, by Blushing Groom-Best In Show, is the dam of two G1 Belmont Stakes winners: Jazil (by Seeking The Gold)and the high class filly Rags To Riches (by A P Indy), as well as current Japanese-trained USA G2 winner Casino Drive (by Mineshaft), from her first five foals. She is the most recent Kentucky Broodmare of the Year. At today's exchange rate that's Aus$21 million.

That's a lot of money for a uterus but if you're paying with 50 cent dollars it's a snip at just A$10,500,000 !

First Boozeday In November

I’ve consulted Weatherzone (see sidebar) and it tells me there’s no reason for VRC or RVL management to weak-kneedly cave in to the blackmail from certain overseas participants to doctor the track for Tuesday’s Cup.

Undignified and condescending comments reportedly attributed to overseas connections – including one supposed Australian – about what should and shouldn’t be convince me that some people still have trouble coming to grips with the fact that the Empire and Australia parted ways long ago.

There’s a likelihood of some precipitation each day including Tuesday, so no need to alter the natural status of the track. No more Makybe Divas please. Weatherzone predicts it will be quite gusty so ladies put a hatpin through your fascinators and tie your miniskirts down.

Interesting aspect of this year’s field and a sign of the times: these stables don’t have a runner: Hayes, Freedman, Waterhouse, Snowden, Hawkes, Price, Moody, Rogerson.

The weight scale is compressed, I think it’s a strongly competitive Cup field. We should see a stirring contest.

SEPTIMUS (Ire) 58.5 10 6h Sadler’s Wells-Caladira, by Darshaan Aidan O’Brien/Johnny Murtagh. You take your life in your hands bringing a Sadler’s Wells to Australia. But he’s won 5 of his 8 starts on tracks rated ‘good’ so I don’t see what their beef is. Shortest win 1408m as a 2YO maiden, longest win 3621m of the Doncaster Cup. Pertinent fact: in only two of his 12 starts has he been in a field bigger than nine. The first was at his debut when there were 12 rivals, the other was in the Epsom Derby where he finished 12th of 18 and was never closer in running. If he lands midfield I hope he doesn’t get claustrophobic or sulk. His two closest stakeswinning relations got their black type in Sweden and India.

MASTER O’REILLY (NZ) 55 6 6g O’Reilly-Without Remorse, by Bahkaroff (USA) Danny O’Brien/Vlad Duric. Last year’s favourite. I think this is the one he’s been trained for. Cox Plate run was just trackwork. Has only once carried this weight successfully, in a Class 1 race at Seymour. Must get himself handier in running. How many Melbourne Cup winners have a Golden Slipper winner in their pedigree? I have some nagging reservations.

HONOLULU (Ire) 54.5 24 5h Montjeu (Ire)-Cerulean Sky, by Darshaan Aidan O’Brien/Colm O’Donoghue. He won’t be hanging about from the draw but of course he won’t be a pacemaker. Has run more marathons than Abebe Bikila (lately, anyway). Winning range 2414m to 4369m. His rider has never ridden him in a race before – probably his work rider. Has a magnificent pedigree and some good formlines. There will be more people at Flemington than your average crowd at Roscommon or Limerick; may fire up and lose his cool in the Cup day cauldron.

C’EST LA GUERRE (NZ) 54 5 4g Shinko King (Ire)-La Magnifique, by Kampala (GB) John Sadler/Brett Prebble. This year’s NZ Derby winner. There are some heavy-hitters in this horse’s ownership including Singo and leading music industry identities, they must have paid a squillion for him so Tuesday is get-square day. If it happened to hose down his chances would magnify. His last two runs have been very good. There are no stayers in his family so he is the black NZ sheep. Dedicated back runner but he’ll be going forward when others are looking for an armchair. Real smokey.

NOM DU JEU (NZ) 54 1 4h Montjeu (Ire)-Prized Gem, by Prized (USA) Murray and Bjorn Baker/Jeff Lloyd. If he’d have been in a yearling sale, Demi O’Byrne would have bought him for a store jumper. But he’s a home-bred out of a mare who won both a Kelt and a Brisbane Cup. Noble Bijou and Mellay are mixed up in the genes. Proven class act. From his barrier position there has to be a rough hope Jeff Lloyd won’t cover too much ground and with the length of the Flemington straight won’t arrive too late. I think he’s an international-class stayer with a great chance. (pictured above)

YELLOWSTONE (Ire) 54 12 5h Rock Of Gibraltar (Ire)-Love And Affection, by Exclusive Era Jane Chapple-Hyam/John Egan. Someone should tell Jane that Daddy’s born-to-rule party aren’t in power any more and to stop being so bossy. Has won only three races from 19, and has always been distanced when in G1 company. No one in Australia would back a Rock to win a Melbourne Cup. Hasn’t raced since 13 September when 54 lengths second last behind Septimus. How can you fall into it? Would make Rebel Raider look like a favourite. Out of a three-quarter sister to high class G1 miler Zoman who proved infertile at stud. SCRATCHED

ZIPPING 54 16 7g Danehill (USA)-Social Scene (Ire), by Grand Lodge (USA) John Sadler/Danny Nikolic. Had four lead-up runs last year before his good fourth placing in the Cup, only three this year. Had seven lead-ups in 2006 when also fourth. So you can see they are fine-tuning the formula. Has been racing very well. Was $1.90 when he won his first start in a Gold Coast 2YO maiden on 31 July 2004. Will go back looking for economical run, he and stablemate C’est La Guerre may make their runs together. Live hope.

MAD RUSH (USA) 53.5 4 5h Lemon Drop Kid-Revonda, by Sadler’s Wells Luca Cumani/Damien Oliver. Has raced only nine times. His Caulfield Cup finish was in keeping with his name. In his only race beyond 2400m he was beaten a short neck at Longchamp. Owner Earle Mack is a highly distinguished gentleman with a long and successful history in thoroughbreds and real estate. USA Ambassador to Finland in 2004, Chairman of the New York State Racing Commission for seven years. Mad Rush’s sire is a relation of A P Indy and his family doesn’t have a rich stamina heritage but it’s hard to poke a hole in his form. One thing’s for sure – D Oliver has so many holidays ahead of him you know he’ll be trying.

ICE CHARIOT 53 22 6g Semipalatinsk (USA)-Snow Chariot, by Chariot Ron Maund/Michael Rodd. Has not run a bad race all season and is seasoned with four starts in the last month. Finished 22nd in the 2006 Melbourne Cup and looking at his record overall I wonder if he the class to win a race like this. He has won $1.1 million without beating anything of quality. How did I make him my roughie in the Caulfield Cup? Will get back but Hot Rodd has a secret Flemington map which could help him at the finish.

VIEWED 53 9 5h Scenic (Ire)-Lover’s Knot (NZ), by Khozaam (USA) Bart Cummings/Blake Shinn. A sentimental favourite because a win would be Bart’s 12th and his 250th G1 victory. No doubt he has been trained for this and nothing else. Undistinguished in good quality company so a leap of faith is required. His sire has never left true stayers but there’s Sir Tristram (Ire) in the pedigree and he comes from the polo-playing family of Battle Heights so there’s some toughness there. I won’t jinx Bart by having my dollar on.

LITTORIO 52.5 17 4g Bellotto (USA)-Our Centasea, by Centaine Nigel Blackiston/Steven King. Has done nothing wrong and Saturday’s run of race didn’t suit him so forget it. But is he just a one-dimensional plodder? It looks a bit that way, and/or his style of racing can get him into a lot of trouble in races. There are 23 others to get around here. Not entitled on breeding to be a stayer. Two wins from 16, he’s going to have to pull finger soon to avoid the “gonna” tag.

BAUER (Ire) 52 13 6h Halling-Dali’s Grey, by Linamix Luca Cumani/Corey Brown. Winning form is good form; in Australian debut beat Moatize at Geelong and he went on to win the Saab. The Europeans don’t rate him as highly as some of the others which is understandable looking at his background. Stamina aplenty in his pedigree and all his wins have been in the 2000m – 2800m range. His sire was a late-blooming crack by the same sire as All The Good. Can take a reasonably prominent position in running and likely to be well served for jockeyship. Could be a player.

BOUNDLESS (NZ) 52 20 4m Van Nistelrooy (USA)-Nothing Less, by Star Way (GB) Stephen McKee/Greg Childs. I gave her a big hope in the Caulfield Cup but she didn’t really kick on. Flemington will definitely suit her better but the spectre of G Childs and 20 at the barrier haunts me. Bred to go five miles on the dam’s side but Van Nistelrooy?? That's a stretch. Wouldn’t surprise me altogether if she was in the firing line somewhere down the straight.

GALLOPIN (NZ) 52 21 5g Pins-Carla Rossi, by Spectacular Love (USA) Danny O’Brien/James Winks. Defies his pedigree and appears to stay well. Looking for sources of stamina, the sire of his fifth dam sired a Melbourne Cup winner and the sire of his grandam had an Auckland Cup winner. Otherwise it’s a dead-set blue collar background – this may be the best horse in the family for 60 years. Won the Moonee Valley Cup last start and prior to that raced without luck, but I can’t see that he’s ever beaten a good horse.

GUYNO (NZ) 52 8 5g O’Reilly (NZ)-River Century, by Centaine Lou Luciani/Craig Newitt. Hasn’t been far away in four starts in Melbourne but these have been second tier races. Last won 12 months ago, consistent meantime. His half-sister Legs won the Kelt and NZ Oaks. He was bought originally after his owners met the breeder in a dress shop. I reckon they’ve secretly come to Melbourne for a shopping spree again. I’m looking hard but I can’t find him; the others would have to have a collective off day.

ZARITA (NZ) 52 7 4m Pentire (GB)-Gin Player, by Defensive Play (USA) SCRATCHED

NEWPORT 51.5 15 6g Encosta de Lago-Sibelienne (GB), by Nishapour Paul Perry/Chris Symons. Just the sort of grinder who occasionally gets in the frame in a Melbourne Cup at cricket score odds. Three wins at 2400m including the Metropolitan and Brisbane Cups (erstwhile prestigious races) in which he carried 52 kgs each time – close to his weight here which might be significant. Has an Olde Worlde French staying pedigree. Encosta has done most things except sire a 3200m winner on the flat – 3000m is as close as he’s got.

PROFOUND BEAUTY (Ire) 51.5 2 5m Danehill (USA)-Diamond Trim, by Highest Honor Dermot Weld/Glen Boss. Oh my god, that combination! This horse could be the silent assassin, puts a chill of fear up your spine. Comes terribly well connected, owned by the famous Moyglare Stud of Swiss-born Walter Haefner who, if he is still alive and I think he is, is 98 years old, certainly the worlds’s oldest billionaire and in the top 200 on the planet. Has only one black-type success in 10 starts but has been all around it. Out here we don’t usually think of Danehill mares winning 3200m races but who are we to question Mr Weld? Past running pattern suggests she’s a forward-going mare so from the draw Bossy might just put her to sleep then pounce. She hasn’t raced for 11 weeks but as Mr Weld has demonstrated previously, so what? Has Sadler’s Wells, Fappiano and Graustark on her female line.

RED LORD 51.5 14 5g Redoute’s Choice-Dame Cath, by Zabeel (NZ) Anthony Cummings/Nicholas Hall. In the old days they said you had to have miles in your legs for the Melbourne Cup. Red Lord has 13,700 race metres in his, most of them run to good effect. Did finish 5th in a Sydney Cup and has won at 2800m, the extremes for a Redoute’s. Bred on the same cross as Fast ‘n’ Famous who loved 1200m – funny thing, breeding. For him, he is carrying a postage stamp weight and this just might keep him in the hunt. One to throw in your First Four multiples.

VAREVEES (GB) 51.5 23 6m Kahyasi-Danse Bretonne, by Exit To Nowhere Richard Gibson/Craig Williams. Marathon runner, triple stakeswinner. Shortest distance ever attempted is 1800m as a two-year-old! Has only raced three times in 2008 and best finish was 6th of eight. Usually races forward so from 23 at the gate C Williams will be on his bike. Is Melbourne-owned so connections are going to have a great day out. Will be an extraordinary training feat if she gets up.

PRIZE LADY (NZ) 51 18 7m Prized (USA)-Pen Bal Lady (GB), by Mummy’s Game Graeme Sanders/Mark Sweeney. Has only won four races but two of them have been the last two G1 Auckland Cups (not the race it once was) over 3200m on affected going. Also 2nd in NZ Oaks and 4th in Queensland Oaks, so a true stayer. Normally takes a handy position in these long races. Has had three lead-up runs with midfield finishes, how can one assess her? Dam was a triple G1 winner in USA but had a horrific produce record at stud. Jockey Mark Sweeney is the trainer’s son-in-law so he’ll be under strict instructions. He was a top grade apprentice a decade ago. It is four years since this mare carried a weight this light.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA (GB) 50.5 11 4h Montjeu (Ire)-Ventura Highway, by Machiavellian Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan. Another from the vast O’Brien/Magnier/Tabor/Smith reservoir. Two wins in nine starts including the Lingfield Derby Trial where he led and beat four others. Sixth in the English Derby to New Approach and 4th in an average Irish Derby (led) so not a complete mug. Has never carried less than 56 kgs so he won’t even know he's got a saddle on which will allow him to roll forward, to absolutely no one’s surprise. All form on a sound surface, bred to do the business.

BARBARICUS 50.5 3 4g Lion Hunter-Light Of Erin, by Palace Music (USA) Danny O’Brien/Stephen Baster. The revelation of the last month. He will possie up and go to sleep in the trail. The first four in the running will probably be trained by an O’Brien! I guarantee they’re related (if you’ve been watching TV and listening to the ABC, it’s less than six degrees). Lots of stamina on his dam’s side and this is what he is racing to. How can you knock him on his recent form? He’s going to look a winning chance in the straight.

MOATIZE 50 19 4g Danehill Dancer (Ire)-Shezabeel (NZ), by Zabeel (NZ) Bart Cummings/Clare Lindop. The latest last-minute rabbit to sneak out of Bart’s hat. A big thrill for Cummings-aligned syndicator Veronica King to have a Cup runner. Her partner and co-owner Michael O’Keefe is executive chairman of Riversdale Mining, an ASX listed company with coal leases in Moatize, a region in Mozambique whence the horse takes it name. Mining for gold here. Amongst his 778 individual winners, Danehill Dancer has had a handful win at extreme distances. At black-type level the furthest is the 2600m G3 won by Danebar in Adelaide. Moatize shares with Anna Pavlova and Arapaho Miss success over 2500m, then it’s Lorne Dancer and Ice Queen at 2400m. But none of those has the Zabeel turbo boost. If Bart and Clare win they’ll raise the roof

Handsome Is As Handsome Does

Whobegotyou appeared not to stay the 2500m of the Victoria Derby and was comprehensively defeated by longshot Rebel Raider, with unlucky Pre Eminence third. But he’s a fine horse Whobegotyou, he's had a splendid campaign and his day will come again.

Perhaps in years to come we will be saying of Reset (pictured) what I have felt about his sire Zabeel – back them all at 2000m and beyond, and double the bet when the blinkers go on (as they did with Rebel Raider on Saturday!!). Wish I had thought about that before 3 p.m.

Talk around the traps had tagged Reset a ‘failure’ even before his first crop turned two, eighteen months ago, an opinion which dumbfounded me with its stupidity. Then I remembered I was in Australia where the smarties believe they can pick a sire in the breaker’s lungeing ring. Much the same opinion was held of Zabeel when his first crop went into training in Australia, though no one can be found who will own up to it. The feedback from the east coast was so negative that some original Zabeel shareholders bailed out prematurely, the rationale being that if that’s what the market thinks then the sooner you get your money out the better.

Reset is a long way off being an unqualified success, but his oldest crop are barely three years old in real time so what chance has he had? Reset himself had not even had a race by November of his three-year-old year, and he is by Zabeel – so I chuckle when would-be gurus of the game make these sorts of predictions.

Rebel Raider (ex G1-placed Picholine, by the emerging broodmare sire talent Dehere (USA)) was a lovely big yearling, no deprived first foal look about him. At Magic Millions 2007 I scored him a respectable 7.5, which is on my ‘buy’ line, and noted “looks a Zabeel type” – well, he sure did winning that Derby on Saturday. Rebel Raider may be the highest-rated winner doubly-bred to Sir Tristram, in his case 3m x 4m. I’ve watched doubling up to Sir Tristram with interest, it’s been tried often, especially in NZ, and the results have left me fairly cold. But now it’s getting back into the fourth remove it might be more effective, or less damaging, whichever way you want to look at it. Rebel Raider is distantly related to A Little Kiss, an amazingly tough filly trained by T J Smith who ran second in the Wakeful Stakes on this day 19 years ago.

Queensland Derby placegetter Moatize finally got his name in lights beating a second-rate bunch of handicappers in the G3 Saab Quality. Presumably he’ll be in the Cup on Tuesday and conventional wisdom would give him zero chance of getting a strong 3200m – even though Bart trains him – as he’s by Danehill Dancer (Ire). But wait, there's more – his dam’s by Zabeel! She won up to 2050m and was herself second in a Cup – at Waipukurau. Talking of Danehill Dancer, I thought one of my favourites, Kimillsy, was a good thing beaten in the Wakeful Stakes. Can she get the 2500m of the Oaks next Thursday? On physique, yes. On pedigree? Danehill Dancer sired the winner of last year’s restricted edition, Arapaho Miss, and her dam, a winner up to 2000m, is by Snippets, more regarded for speed. You wouldn’t think it's a convincing Oaks-winning formula, especially against the Zabeel factor – Samantha Miss - but funnier things have happened.

In contrast to Rebel Raider, Rocha (Encosta de Lago-Larrocha, by Danehill (USA)) was not an inspiring first foal but on pedigree alone she made $400,000 at the 2007 Sydney Easter Yearling Sale. Swettenham Stud had placed a $500,000 reserve on her but passed her in after bidding her up to $475,000. The sale was negotiated back at the boxes. She was a neat and compact filly but her legs went every which way. Her NZ owner, 64-year-old Terry Jarvis, with his agent Michael Otto, sniff around the sales for value fillies with strong pedigrees, often giving away a bit of conformation, and such was Rocha whose dam won the G1 S.A. Oaks and whose grandam Kensington Gardens (NZ) left five stakeswinners by Danehill. Jarvis was a useful right-hander for NZ when they had a pretty good team, playing 13 tests. In 1972, he and Glenn Turner made an opening stand of 387 against West Indies. Terry was also a pay-TV pioneer in NZ and a one-time stud owner (The Oaks). Hill Of Grace (NZ) is probably the best he’s raced.

It was probably only because of indifferent front leg conformation that Gai Waterhouse didn't end up training Reset. She was given to train the full brother before him, So Assertive (a raging bull until he was castrated as a late two-year-old, after which he became a good quality racehorse) and paid $1.3 million for the half-brother after him, Assertive Choice (died at three). The Graeme Rogerson/Lloyd Williams team bought the piggy-in-the-middle, Reset, for $190,000. An immature November foal, he had light bone and upright pasterns and was a bit jointy but he was very strong through the middle. Zabeel had 92 yearlings sell that year, 2002, and Reset was $10,000 under the average price. Graeme Rogerson signed for 20 of them.

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Quarter of a million bucks. Group 3 status. Just six two-year-olds. That’s all they could get for the Maribyrnong Plate at Flemington. With ‘big’ owners now reluctant to expose their costly, pampered two-year-olds early, there’s a more compelling case to demote this over-rated race than any case which can be mounted to tamper with the Victoria Derby. And what about four three-year-olds lining up for 70 grand in Sydney? Between Saturday 1st and up to and including Melbourne Cup Day Tuesday 4th there are 86 race meetings in Australia. To be fair, half these ‘meetings’ have little to do with good racing opportunities, they’re just an excuse to take Tuesday off and get pissed.

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Good on you, Gai, Two G1 winners on Derby Day, Northern Meteor and Theseo, both of whom featured in this blog recently. One owned by a billionaire, the other by ten average Joes (with apologies to John McCain and the plumber).

In the excitement of the moment Gai can be forgiven in her post-race TV interview for crediting Secret Savings instead of Danewin for siring Theseo. At least she got the stud right!

I reckon few winners give Gai greater pleasure than those in Melbourne. I was with her for several of those years she had to endure a pasting from a baying Melbourne media mob (one or two cretins in particular) which reached a frenzied peak with the disgraceful treatment meted out over Platinum Scissors exactly six years ago this week. I was with her in Melbourne right through that week and was sitting next to her on the Wednesday when she first spoke to vet Percy Sykes about her concern with the colt, so I know the circumstances and the chronology. Sections of the press were determined to weave a web of conspiracy where none existed, their attitude in my opinion fuelled by pathetic sexism, the Melbourne/Sydney enmity and the long-festering Melbourne antipathy to the name Waterhouse.

So most Derby Days, Gai rubs their noses in it. I call it Gambling Man’s revenge. Give her the right horse and there is simply no better trainer in Australia, supported as she is by her proud, loyal and long-serving staff. Her figures over a long period of time prove it.

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Four classier-looking colts you wouldn’t find than those which dominated the G1 Coolmore – Northern Meteor, Fist Of Fury, All American and Von Costa de Hero – and not a drop of Danehill in sight! What a tragedy to see Wilander and Tindal come out of the race at the barrier. The contest was much the weaker for it. And keeping on the subject of good lookers, of the opposite sex, the Miss Universe of the G1 Myer Classic field, Forensics (Flying Spur-Prove It, by Dehere (USA)) was a class above them. Again, scratchings materially weakened the field, this was not a vintage G1, but take nothing away from Forensics, she has always been right at the top of the class. I love G1 form in G1 races and apart from the South African Dane Julia, Forensics was the only G1 winner in the field. And what about two G1 winners on the day for Dehere mares, coming on top of Midnight Lute’s second G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint last weekend? Dehere is young as far as broodmare sires go but he’s putting together quite a serious record, already 26 stakeswinners out of his daughters worldwide.

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By how far Wanted? Try 1.3 lengths. He looked in real trouble at the top of the straight. The penny didn’t drop until the last 100m. Nice horse.